[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds have begun to increase today off
northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, ahead of a
Gulf of Mexico cold front approaching the area from the west.
Winds will reach minimal gale-force N of 30N between 75W and 80W
tonight, then shift eastward as far E as 66W through Tue afternoon
before diminsining below Gale-force. Seas are expected to build
during this time and peak at 12 to 16 ft in mixed SW and W swell
by Tue afternoon.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW to N winds are
occurring across the SW Gulf of Mexico this evening, behind a cold
front that stretches from Pensacola Bay to the central Bay of
Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, but
the duration and long fetch of the winds will allow seas to build
as high as 14 ft across the W central and SW Gulf through early
tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02.5N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 02.5N23W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02.5S43W. A line of scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 03N to 04N between 24W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.

Gale-force NW to N winds prevail S of 24N and within 180 nm
behind a cold front that extends from from Pensacola Bay to the
central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Afternoon altimeter satellite
data and buoy observations across the west central and southwest
Gulf show that seas have already built to 12-14 ft immediately
behind the front, and suggest that gale-force winds likely
accompanied the front across central portions early this
afternoon. Elsewhere behind the front, strong NW to N winds of 20
to 30 kt extend from the Texas coastal waters to the front, with
seas of 7 to 12 ft. N of 25N and ahead of the front fresh to
strong S to SW winds dominate the NE Gulf, where seas are 5 to 9
ft. Narrow lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
across the NE Gulf ahead of the front, north of 27N.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the Gulf
tonight, and reach the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel
by Tue morning. Gale-force winds are expected to diminish to arond
30 kt later this evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW to N winds
and rough seas will follow the front through Tue morning. Marine
conditions will continue to improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds
across the basin. Gales are possible again Fri night through Sat
night as low pressure, and an associated cold front, move E-SE
across the Gulf region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An evening scatterometer satellite pass indicated near-gale force
NE to E winds off Colombia, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere
over the south-central Caribbean. A concurrent altimeter satellite
pass and buoy observations showed combined seas to 8 to 11 ft.
These winds are due to a tight gradient between strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations
showed fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northwest Caribbean.
Concurrent altimeter passes and buoy observations indicated 8 to
10 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas to 8 ft due to northerly swell may
still be penetrating through the Mona Passage. Buoy observations
show moderate combined seas elsewhere. A few showers are possible
over the northeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, the gale-force winds off Colombia will diminish
later this morning as high pressure north of the area shifts
eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico.
The front will enter the Yucatan Channel later today then start to
stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
mid week. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the
northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into Mon night. Looking
ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will
support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly
the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale force
off Colombia by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic,
and the developing gales off northeast Florida.

The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N west of 40W,
anchored by 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N62W. REcent
buoy observations and scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
southerly flow off northeast Florida, and south of the ridge,
along with evidence the large swell persists as described in the
Special Features section. Farther east, a stationary front extends
from 31N28W to 20N40W. Northerly swell with wave heights as high
as 8 to 10 ft extends as far south as 24N, east of 35W, with
moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will move eastward across the central
Atlantic through mid- week, ahead of a cold front that will move
off the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Tue
morning. Strong to near- gale force S to SW winds will develop off
northeast Florida through tonight ahead of the this cold front,
reaching minimal gale-force tonight. The front will reach from
near Bermuda to central Cuba by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern
Cuba by late Wed, before starting to stall and dissipate from
24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu.

$$
Stripling
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