[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121211 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...COR
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024

CORRECTION FOR TRANSMISSION TIME TO 1205 UTC

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds will increase late today off
northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas ahead of a
cold front approaching the area from the west. Winds will briefly
reach minimal gale-force near 31N between 75W and 80W tonight into
early Tue, with seas reaching as high as 12 ft.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Winds are reaching gale-force off
Colombia this morning, with 8 to 11 ft seas. Winds will diminish
later in the morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Winds will reach minimal gale-force
later this morning off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, following a
cold front moving through the region. The winds will diminish
below gale force by early afternoon, but the duration and fetch of
the winds will allow seas to build as high as 11 ft.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Buoy observations and
altimeter satellite data indicate 8 to 11 ft combined seas east of
65W. The large northerly swell will continue to move into the
northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into tonight, and into
the tropical Atlantic west of 50W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 04N25W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N51W. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are evident.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.

Strong NW winds and rough seas follow a cold front extending from
Marsh Island, Louisiana to Tecolutla, Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SE to S
winds over the central Gulf ahead of the front. A concurrent
altimeter satellite pass indicated combined seas of 6 to 8 ft.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm ahead
of the front, north of 26N.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico later this morning, and exit to the southeast of the
basin by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas
follow the front, reaching gale force off Veracruz later this
morning. Marine conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge
builds across the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters.

An evening scatterometer satellite pass indicated near-gale force
NE to E winds off Colombia, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere
over the south-central Caribbean. A concurrent altimeter satellite
pass and buoy observations showed combined seas to 8 to 11 ft.
These winds are due to a tight gradient between strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations showed
fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northwest Caribbean.
Concurrent altimeter passes and buoy observations indicated 8 to
10 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas to 8 ft due to northerly swell may
still be penetrating through the Mona Passage. Buoy observations
show moderate combined seas elsewhere. A few showers are possible
over the northeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, the gale-force winds off Colombia will diminish
later this morning as high pressure north of the area shifts
eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico.
The front will enter the Yucatan Channel later today then start to
stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
mid week. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the
northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into Mon night. Looking
ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will
support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly
the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale force
off Colombia by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic,
and the developing gales off northeast Florida.

The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N west of 40W,
anchored by 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N62W. REcent
buoy observations and scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
southerly flow off northeast Florida, and south of the ridge,
along with evidence the large swell persists as described in the
Special Features section. Farther east, a stationary front extends
from 31N28W to 20N40W. Northerly swell with wave heights as high
as 8 to 10 ft extends as far south as 24N, east of 35W, with
moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will move eastward across the central
Atlantic through mid- week, ahead of a cold front that will move
off the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Tue
morning. Strong to near- gale force S to SW winds will develop off
northeast Florida through tonight ahead of the this cold front,
reaching minimal gale-force tonight. The front will reach from
near Bermuda to central Cuba by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern
Cuba by late Wed, before starting to stall and dissipate from
24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net