[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Warnings for Gale-Force winds, and rough to very rough seas, have
been issued for parts of the Gulf of Mexico, the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are related
to a low pressure center and a cold front that are moving through
the Gulf of Mexico and into parts of the northern Caribbean Sea,
and through Florida into the Atlantic Ocean. The first weather
system, and a second and reinforcing system, will bring hazardous
marine conditions to parts of the forecast area through at least
Tuesday night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution during the
next couple of days: in the Gulf of Mexico, in the Yucatan
Peninsula, and in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in the western
Atlantic Ocean, including areas that are away from the gale-force
wind warning areas. This is due to the expansive area of strong to
near-gale force winds that will be associated with the successive
weather systems. The large wind fields will build rough to very
rough seas.early next week. This bulletin is based on the
forecasts that started at 05/0000 UTC, and continue for 48 hours
into the future.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AND FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A first cold front passes through Florida, to NW Cuba, into the NW
Caribbean Sea, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
squall line has been to the east of the first cold front by 100 nm
or so. A second cold front is moving through the central Gulf of
Mexico, about 460 nm to the west of the first cold front. Expect
gale-force NW winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 25N to
27N between 92W and 94W. Gale-force winds, and rough to very rough
seas, will continue to move eastward in the Gulf of Mexico, with
the second cold front, during the next 30 hours or so. Moderate to
rough seas are in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico now.
Moderate seas cover the rest of the northern two-thirds of the
area, and everywhere from 90W eastward. Slight seas are in the SW
corner of the Gulf.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect at 18 hours: gale-force W to NW winds, and rough to very
rough seas, from 21N to 22N between 85W and 86.5W, including in
the Yucatan Channel. The gale-force winds, and the rough to very
rough seas, will last from 18 hours to 42 hours.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Expect at 30 hours: a 998 mb low pressure center near 30N74W.
Gale-force NW winds, and rough to very rough seas, will be from
28N northward between 79W and 82W. These conditions will be
continuing up to the 48 hour point in the forecast period. Strong
and faster SE winds now are from 28N northward from 75W westward.
Fresh to strong SE winds are elsewhere from 23N to 28N between 70W
and 77W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to
02N33W, 04N34W, 04N39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 06N southward from 45W eastward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 16N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico.
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

A deep low pressure system moving across the northeastern and
east-central Gulf will keep fresh to strong winds and rough seas
through this evening. The attendant cold front will exit to the
southeast of the Gulf tonight. Afterward, a second deepening low
pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate across the
central and eastern Gulf late tonight through Monday night. This
next system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas for the
central and southeastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the
gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-
gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive
weather systems.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING for the Yucatan Channel, and for the
northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea.

Slight to moderate seas are in the NW corner of the area, and in
the SE corner of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere in the area.
Fresh southerly winds are in the Windward Passage, and in parts of
the SE corner of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area.

Southerly wind are starting to increase from eastern Honduras to
western Cuba ahead of a weak cold front in the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico currently approaching the Yucatan Channel. This front
will continue to move into the northwest Caribbean tonight, just
ahead of a stronger, reinforcing front that moves through the
Yucatan Channel Mon. The fronts will merge from central Cuba to
northeast Nicaragua by late Mon, then reach from the Mona Passage
to eastern Panama by late Tue. It should weaken as it moves
through the eastern Caribbean through mid week. Gale-force winds
and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the
northwest Caribbean Mon into Tue. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish as they spread across the western Caribbean into Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING has been issued for the Atlantic Ocean.
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

A first NE-to-SW oriented surface trough cuts through the waters
that are from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. The Florida cold
front and squall line are about 580 nm to the west of the trough.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are from 20N northward from 50W westward.
A second NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is about 720 nm to the
east of the first trough. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are
from 17N northward from 56W eastward.

Moderate to rough seas are in general from 27N northward between
45W and 70W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 28N northward
between 34W and 40W on the eastern side of the second trough.
Fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from 24N northward between 34W
and 42W on the eastern side of the second trough. Fresh to strong
W-to-SW winds are from 28N northward between 48W and 60W, and
from 30N northward between 60W and 70W. Fresh W-to-SW winds are
elsewhere from 23N northward between 45W and 70W. Mostly moderate
to some fresh NE winds are from 18N southward. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A dissipating cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean. The
dissipating cold front is passing through 31N40W 26N43W 22N48W.
A surface trough continues from 22N48W, to 14N60W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward
between Africa and 50W; and from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W.
Fresh-to-strong SW winds are from 23N northward between 40W and
47W.

A trough along 24N east of the Bahamas will dissipate tonight
ahead of a deep low pressure system and related cold front moving
through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly
winds and rough seas will persist off the Florida east coast and
across the Bahamas tonight. These features will move between
northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week
bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the
western Atlantic.

$$
mt/era
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