[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, NW Caribbean
Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are associated
with a deepening low pressure system and the attendant cold front
moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic and the
Caribbean Sea. This system and a reinforcing system will bring
hazardous marine conditions across parts of the forecast area
through at least Tue night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution
over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, the NW
Caribbean and the western Atlantic outside of the gale warning
areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds
associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind
fields will build very rough seas.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A deep low pressure system of 996 mb and attendant cold front is
moving across the far eastern Gulf. At 2100 UTC, the low is
centered near 29N85W with associated cold front extending from the
low SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters near
22N87W SW to a 1007 mb low near 20N92W to the Bay of Campeche near
18N94W. A warm front also departs from the low SE to Cape Coral,
Florida while a strong squall line races across S Florida and the
Straits of Florida. Gale-force southerly winds are occurring ahead
of the front and low pressure, in the Florida Big Bend adjacent
waters to just N of Tampa Bay along with rough seas to 10 ft.
Behind the front and E of 90W, fresh to strong winds are ongoing
with rough seas to 9 ft. The deep low pressure system and
attendant cold front will keep gale-force winds and rough seas in
the eastern basin until late this afternoon when the cold front is
expected to exit to the southeast of the Gulf. Afterward, a second
deepening low pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate
across the central and eastern Gulf tonight through Monday night.
This next system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas
for the central and southeastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to
exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including
outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of
strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with
these successive weather systems.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
The weather pattern will change this afternoon as a cold front
moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean.
Deep low pressure N of the area will support strong W to NW winds
and rough to very rough seas in the wake of the front over the NW
Caribbean starting tonight. Winds are forecast to reach gale-force
over the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean by Mon afternoon,
with seas building as high as 18 or 20 ft in the Yucatan Channel
late on Mon. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will
follow the front over the NW Caribbean Mon into Tue. Strong winds
and rough seas, behind the front, will reach the north-central and
SW Caribbean, including also the waters between Cuba and Jamaica,
and the Windward Passage Tue into Wed.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A stationary front along 25N into central Florida will dissipate
late today ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the
NE Gulf of Mexico. Southeast winds will increase and seas will
build off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas late today
ahead of the low and associated cold front. These features will
move between NE Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the
week. Strong to gale force northerly winds are expected across
the coastal waters of Florida Mon night into Tue. At the same
time, strong westerly winds are forecast to affect the Bahamas and
most of the waters S of 29N and W of 65W while strong to gale
force winds are expected N of 29N. On Tue, seas will build to 12
to 20 ft within the strongest winds, and mainly N of 27N and W of
70W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N22W where the ITCZ continues along 04N36W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axes E of
25W and between 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an
ongoing and an upcoming gale warning.

A deep low pressure system of 996 mb and attendant cold front is
moving across the far eastern Gulf. At 2100 UTC, the low is
centered near 29N85W with associated cold front extending from the
low SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters near
22N87W SW to a 1007 mb low near 20N92W to the Bay of Campeche near
18N94W. A warm front also departs from the low SE to Cape Coral,
Florida while a strong squall line races across S Florida and the
Straits of Florida. Gale-force southerly winds are occurring ahead
of the front and low pressure, in the Florida Big Bend adjacent
waters to just N of Tampa Bay along with rough seas to 10 ft.
Heavy showers are ongoing across the Florida Straits. Behind the
front and E of 90W, fresh to strong winds are ongoing with rough
seas to 9 ft. The tail of the next cold front extends from the SE
coast of Texas near 29N94W SW to 27N97W. Fresh to strong W winds
and seas to 6 ft follow this front. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds and slight seas are between the offshore waters S of
Tampico and Veracruz adjacent waters.

For the forecast, the deep low pressure system and attendant cold
front will keep gale-force winds and rough seas in the eastern basin
until late this afternoon when the cold front is expected to exit
to the southeast of the Gulf. Afterward, a second deepening low
pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate across the
central and eastern Gulf tonight through Monday night. This next
system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas for the
central and southeastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the
gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-
gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive
weather systems.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale
Warning for the Yucatan Channel, and later on for the NW
Caribbean.

Southerly winds over the NW Caribbean are starting to increase
from Nicaragua offshores to the Yucatan Channel and in the
Windward Passage ahead of a cold front moving across the far
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data show light to gentle E
to SE winds elsewhere except in the far SE Caribbean where SE
winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas are 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move into the northwest
Caribbean this afternoon, just ahead of a stronger, reinforcing
front that moves through the Yucatan Channel tonight. The fronts
will merge from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by late Mon,
reach from the Mona Passage to the eastern Panama by late Tue,
then weaken as it moves through the eastern Caribbean through mid
week. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow
the front over the NW Caribbean Mon into Tue. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish as they spread across the western Caribbean
into Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scatterometer data already show fresh to near gale-force SE winds
over the NE Florida offshore waters N of Cape Canaveral and fresh
to strong S winds elsewhere along the Florida seaboard. Seas over
the offshores N of Cape Canaveral are rough to 9 ft. Farther
east, a weakening cold front extends from 30N53W SW to 25N68W
where it transitions to a weakening stationary front.
Scatterometer data show moderate to fres W to NW winds W of this
front, which is affecting the offhore zones N of 25N. In the
Central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N39W SW to
16N55W, which is generating scattered showers N of 24N between 26W
and 44W. The remainder subtropical E Atlantic is under the
influence of a surface ridge that extends SW to the deep tropics.
This is favoring gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds E of 35W
and NE to E winds of similar speeds in the deep tropics.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front along 25N into
central Florida will dissipate late today ahead of a deep low
pressure system moving through the NE Gulf of Mexico. Southeast
winds will continue to increase and expand in areal coverage off
the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas ahead of the low and
associated cold front. These features will move between northeast
Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week bringing
gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western
Atlantic.

$$
Ramos
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