[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean
Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are associated
with a deepening low pressure system and the attendant cold front
moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic and the
Caribbean Sea. These two systems will bring hazardous marine
conditions across parts of the forecast area through at least
Tue night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next
couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean and the
western Atlantic outside of the gale warning areas due to the
expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with
the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build
very rough seas.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deepening low pressure system
located over the north-central Gulf will move across the NE Gulf
today. The attendant cold front will also move across the eastern
Gulf today, and then exit to the southeast of the Gulf this
afternoon. Gale force southerly winds are occurring ahead of the
front and low pressure. Strong to gale force W to NW winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow these two features. These
hazardous marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the
Gulf region through Mon night. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution across the Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale
warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near- gale
force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The
large wind fields will build rough to very rough seas across much
of the Gulf of Mexico. Sea heights of 12 to 20 ft are expected.
Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of
days across the Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale
warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale
force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The
large wind fields will build rough to very rough seas across much
of the Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The weather pattern will change this
afternoon as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into
the northwest Caribbean. Deep low pressure N of the area will
support strong W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas in the
wake of the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night.
Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the Yucatan Channel
and the northwest Caribbean by Mon afternoon, with seas building
as high as 18 or 20 ft in the Yucatan Channel late on Mon. Strong
winds and rough seas, behind the front, will reach the north-
central and SW Caribbean, including also the waters between Cuba
and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage Tue into Wed.

Atlantic Gale Warning: SE winds will increase and seas will build
off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas late today
ahead of the low and associated cold front. These features will
move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part
of the week bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas
across the western Atlantic. Strong to gale force northerly winds
are expected across the coastal waters of Florida Mon night into
Tue. At the same time, strong westerly winds are forecast to
affect the Bahamas and most of the waters S of 29N and W of 65W
while strong to gale force winds are expected N of 29N. On Tue,
seas will build to 12 to 20 ft within the strongest winds, and
mainly N of 27N and W of 70W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W and continues westward to 04N14W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N14W to 02N30W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 04N between 10W and 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information.

The surface analysis has low pressure of 999 mb over SE Louisiana
with a cold front extending S then SW to near Tampico, Mexico. A
squall line is ahead of the front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the eastern Gulf mainly N of 22N. Strong to gale
force southerly winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are observed ahead
of the front while fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are
currently seen in the wake of the front E of 90W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are within about 90 nm N of the frontal boundary W
of 90W based on scatterometer data. gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the remainder of the western Gulf, except in the
Bay of Campeche where light and variable winds are noted.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for details.
Marine conditions across the Gulf should begin to improve Tue as
the front moves farther into the Caribbean Sea.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the Yucatan Channel, and later on for the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

Satellite derived wind data reveal light to gentle trade winds
across much of the Caribbean, with the exception of gentle to
moderate winds over the far SE Caribbean, and the NW Caribbean,
mainly W of 82W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with the strongest winds, and
1 to 3 elsewhere. No significant convection is noted.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 26N70W to near W Palm Beach,
Florida. A narrow band of mainly low clouds is related to the
front. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front,
particularly N of 27N between 52W and 65W with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell
N of 27N between 65W and 70W. E of the cold front, the remnants
of an old frontal boundary is analyzed as a surface trough that
extends from 31N40W to 23N45W to near Barbados in the Windward
Islands. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
ahead of the trough axis N of 25N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell
are also noted in the wake of the trough. Low level clouds, with
possible showers are associated with this trough. Some convective
activity is ahead of the trough N of 27N. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge that
is producing mainly light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 5 ft.
Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across
much of the tropical Atlantic. Sea heights increase 6 to 7 ft NE
of the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, see the Special Features section for
details.

$$
GR
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