[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AND FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

Mariners are urged to exercise caution during the next couple of
days in the Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale-force
wind warning areas. This is due to the expansive area of strong to
near-gale force winds that will be associated with the successive
weather systems. The large wind fields will build rough to very
rough seas in much of the Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

The northern half of a cold front is moving into the central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The southern part of the front
curves to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. A triple point is along
the SE coast of Louisiana. A warm front extends from the triple
point to 27.5N86W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover
the areas that are from 90W eastward. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 90W
eastward. Gale-force winds currently are on the eastern side of
the front from 26N northward between 87W and the cold front. Gale-
force winds are forecast to the west of the cold front, in 24
hours, from 25N to 28N between 90W and 96W. Moderate or slower
winds are mainly elsewhere, away from the areas of the gale-force
winds and the developing gale-force winds. Expect gale-force W-to-
NW winds, and rough to very rough seas, at 36 hours: from 22N to
27N between 87W and 95W including in the Yucatan Channel. Expect
gale-force NW winds, and very rough seas, at 48 hours: from 24N
southward between 83W and 88W including in the Yucatan Channel.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect at 42 hours: gale-force W winds, and rough to very rough
seas, from 21N northward from 84W westward, including in the
Yucatan Channel. A cold front will be from 22N78W to 16N84W.
Expect at 48 hours: gale-force W-to-NW winds, and rough to very
rough seas, from 20N northward from 81W westward, including in the
Yucatan Channel.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Expect at 48 hours: a 998 mb low pressure center near 29N76W.
A cold front will trail from the low pressure center, to 27N73W
21N76W. Gale-force winds, and rough seas, will be within a 45 nm
radius of the center in the NE semicircle.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Liberia to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W, to 03N24W, and
then along 02N/03N to 44W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 04N southward from 07W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward. The comparatively greatest amount
of concentration of precipitation is from 09N southward from 45W
eastward, in general.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico.
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

A deepening low pressure system over the north-central Gulf will
move across the NE Gulf on Sun. The associated cold front,
currently over the central Gulf, will move across the eastern Gulf
Sun, and then exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon.
Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front
and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north- central and
eastern Gulf tonight into Sun morning. Strong to gale force W to
NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the low pressure
and front. These hazardous marine conditions are forecast to
affect most of the Gulf region. Mariners are urged to exercise
caution tonight through Mon night across the Gulf of Mexico,
including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive
area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with the
successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build rough
to very rough seas across much of the Gulf of Mexico through Mon
night. Sea heights of 12 to 18 ft are expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING for the Yucatan Channel, and later
for the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea.

Slight seas are everywhere at the moment. Moderate to fresh NE-to-
E winds are from 14N southward from 66W eastward. Moderate or
slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of
the area.

Weak high pressure north of the front will support relatively
benign marine conditions through this evening. The pattern will
start to change late tonight as a cold front moves through the
Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Deep
low pressure north of the area will support strong W to NW winds
and rough to very rough seas following the front over the
northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds are forecast to
reach gale force over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest
Caribbean by late Mon afternoon with seas building as high as 18
ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the
southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING has been issued for the Atlantic Ocean.
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

A cold front has entered the NW corner of the area, passing
through 31N60W 26N67W, beyond 30N80W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from the
cold front northward and northwestward. Moderate to rough seas
are from 17N northward between 50W and 70W; and from 29N
northward between 37W and the dissipating cold front. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong
W-to-SW winds are from 28N northward between 55W and 62W. Fresh-
to-strong NE winds are from the cold front northward from 78W
westward. Moderate to fresh NW winds are elsewhere from 20N
northward between 60W and 74W. Moderate SE winds are from 74W
westward. An exception is from moderate to fresh SE winds that
are in the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from
20N to 28N between 50W and 60W. Mostly moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A dissipating cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean. The
dissipating cold front is passing through 31N40W 26N43W 22N48W.
A surface trough continues from 22N48W, to 14N60W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward
between Africa and 50W; and from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W.
Fresh-to-strong SW winds are from 23N northward between 40W and
47W.

A cold front extending from 31N60W to 26N60W to a 1011 mb low
pressure located over SE Georgia will stall along 27N west of 55W
Sun, then lift north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system
moving through the northeastern Gulf. SE winds will increase and
seas will build off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas
late Sun ahead of the low. The low pressure and an associated cold
front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the
early part of the week. These features will bring gale force
winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic,
particularly across the forecast waters N of 27N.

$$
mt/gr
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