[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Feb 3 04:42:58 CST 2024


AXNT20 KNHC 031042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast region
near 31N45W, then continues SW, crossing the Leeward Islands into
the NE Caribbean where it becomes a stationary front. A recent
scatterometer pass indicates minimal gale force winds N of 28N
and E of the front to about 42W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within these
winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by this
morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deep low pressure system will move
from the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi Valley by
late today, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon. The
associated cold front will move across the western Gulf today, the
central Gulf tonight and into the eastern part of the basin by
Sun morning. The cold front will exit to the southeast of the Gulf
Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead
of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the
north-central and eastern Gulf tonight into Sun. Looking ahead,
marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the deep low
pressure shifts into the Atlantic followed by strong to gale-
force W to NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much
of the Gulf Sun into Tue.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Liberia, to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 03N36W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 04N between 21W and 31W. Similar convective activity is near
05N29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the north-central and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section for more
information.

Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations indicate fresh to
strong SE to S winds over the western Gulf, particularly from 19N
to 26N and W of 92W. These winds are on increase ahead of the next
cold front, forecast to enter the Gulf today. A weak ridge, with a
1014 mb high pressure located over N Florida, dominates the eastern
half of Gulf region, generating gentle to moderate E to SE winds,
with the exception of light and variable winds over the NE Gulf.
Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft over the E and central Gulf, and 4 to
7 ft over the western Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are over the NW Gulf and the coast waters of Texas due to the
approaching cold front.

For the forecast, a significant increase in winds and seas is expected
across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Mon as a deep low pressure
and the associated cold front moves across the region. Strong to gale-
force westerly winds will dominate most of the Gulf waters, reaching
the Straits of Florida, the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean.
Very rough seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range, will be associated with
these winds. Please, see the Special Features Section for more
information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean while
a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin as
a low pressure system persists N of the area. A stationary front
is analyzed over the NE Caribbean, and runs from the Leeward
Islands to just S of Haiti. Under this weather pattern, light to
gentle winds are noted per scatterometer data over most of the
Caribbean Sea, with the exception moderate trade winds near the
coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela and near the
ABC Islands. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the east and central
Caribbean, and 1 to 2 ft over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low
level moisture, with embedded showers are noted across the region.


For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front over the
far northeast Caribbean will dissipate today. Weak high pressure
north of the front will support relatively benign marine conditions
into late today. The pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves
through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon.
Deep low pressure north of the area will support strong W to NW winds
and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest
Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach gale force
over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean late Mon
with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas
will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning remains in effect ahead of a cold front that extends
from 31N45W to the Leeward Islands. Please, see the Special Features
Section for more information. This front is associated with a gale
center of 993 mb located near 35N50W. This system, combined with
the front, is producing a large area of fresh to strong winds over
the central Atlantic, covering mainly the waters N of 23N between
45W and 55W with seas of 10 to 14 ft. A band of mainly low clouds
and possible showers is related to the front. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 24N and E of the front to about 30W. A weak
ridge, with a 1014 mb high pressure located over N Florida,
follows the front. A second cold front, extending along 31N/32W
and W of Bermuda is approaching the waters off NE Florida. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a ridge. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft
prevail cross the tropical Atlantic. Seas increase to 6 to 8 ft
near the Leeward Islands due the presence of the front. Seas of 4
to 6 ft are observed E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching from 31N45W to
the Leeward Islands will slowly shift east of the area through
late today. Another cold front will move south of 30N and west of
Bermuda this morning, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun before
lifting north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving
through the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will
build off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late
Sun ahead of the low. The low pressure and an associated cold
front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the
early part of the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and
rough to very rough seas.

$$
GR
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