[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030632 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...COR NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 03 2024

CORRECTED FOR THE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front is along 31N48W 26N50W 20N57W
17N60W, into the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N64W. The front is
stationary from 16N64W, to SW Haiti. A surface trough is about
180 nm to the SE of the cold front from 14N63W northeastward.
Expect from 28N northward between 46W and the cold front: gale-
force S-to-SW winds, and rough seas in W swell. Expect elsewhere
from 23N northward between the cold front and 42W: strong to
near gale-force S-to-SW winds, and rough seas. Expect from 25N
northward from the cold front to 58W: strong to near gale-force
winds W-to-NW winds, and rough seas in W-to-NW swell. Elsewhere
N of 18N and W of the cold front to a line 19N66W 27N74W 31N65W:
fresh or slower winds, and rough to very rough seas in NW-to-N
swell. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 22N northward between 30W and the trough/front.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere: within 60 nm to the east of the
surface trough; between the trough and the cold front; from the
Cabo Verde Islands northward from the cold front eastward; and
everywhere from the cold front westward and northwestward. Fresh
SE winds are from 26N northward between 36W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect in 24 hours, a cold front to be along 30N90W 21N97W.
Gale-force SE-to-S winds, and sea heights ranging from moderate
to close to rough, will be from 25N northward between 87W and
the cold front.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Liberia, to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W, to 03N20W,
and along 03N to 36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 02N to 04N between 20W and 32W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, and the cold front.

Strong to near gale-force SE winds are from 22N to 24N between
95W and the coast of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds are
elsewhere to the east of Mexico from 19N to 25N between 95W and
the coast of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the
remainder of the area that is from 28N southward from 93W
westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, and moderate or
slower winds, span the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1016 mb
high pressure center is near 29.5N 87.5W. Moderate sea heights
are from 93W westward.
Slight seas are elsewhere in the area.

Weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf will shift east
tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system that will move from
the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi Valley by late
Sat, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon. An associated
cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sat, and exit to the
southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase
across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale
force over the north-central and eastern Gulf Sat night into Sun.
Looking ahead, marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the deep low pressure shifts into the Atlantic followed strong to
gale-force NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much
of the Gulf Sun into Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 20N57W 17N60W, into
the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N64W. The front is stationary from
16N64W, to SW Haiti. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the SE
of the cold front from 14N63W northeastward. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
from 17N to 22N between 60W and the Windward Passage.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, span the Caribbean
Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of
the area.

A stationary front over the far northeast Caribbean will
dissipate through Sat. Weak high pressure north of the front will
support relatively benign marine conditions into late Sat. The
pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves through the Yucatan
Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Looking ahead,
deep low pressure north of the area will support strong NW winds
and rough to very rough seas following the front over the
northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds may reach gale force
late Mon over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean
with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas
will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning, and the cold front/surface trough.

Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area.

A cold front reaching from 21N55W to the Leeward Islands will
slowly shift east of the area through late Sat. Another cold front
will move south of 30N and west of Bermuda early Sat, then stall
along 27N west of 55W Sun before lifting north Sun night ahead of
a deep low pressure system moving through the northeast Gulf. SE
winds will increase and seas will build off northeast Florida and
north of the northern Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. Looking
ahead, the low pressure and an associated cold front will move
between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of
the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and rough to very
rough seas.

$$
mt/gr
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