[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from complex 994 mb
low pressure east of Bermuda through 32N50W SW through 21N56W to
the NE Caribbean near 16N66W where it then stalls to S Haiti.
Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the region N of
22N between 30W and 47W. Ongoing near gale to gale-force W to NW
winds behind the front and N of 26N, and within 300 nm ahead of
the front will continue to affect the northern offshore zones
through tonight as the front continues an eastward track. Seas
currently 12 to 16 ft behind the front will gradually diminish
below 12 ft through Sat morning. Winds will gradually decrease
into Sat, as the low lifts NE and away of the central subtropical
Atlantic waters.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region late
Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and
across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the
front are forecast to reach minimal gale force over the central
Gulf Sat evening, and then the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun
morning, with seas building 8 to 12 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough meanders inland W Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 04N15W to 04N30W to 00N49W. No significant convection is
observed.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see the Special Features Section for more information.

High pressure of 1016 mb is located over Mississippi coastal
waters extending a ridge over the NE Gulf of Mexico and providing
light to gentle variabl winds and slight seas E of 90W. Low
pressure is building over the western half of the basin ahead of
the next cold front. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over the western Gulf is supporting moderate to
fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf
will shift east tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system that
will move from the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi
Valley by late Sat, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon.
An associated cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sat,
and exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and
seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low
pressure, reaching gale force over the north-central and eastern
Gulf Sat night into Sun. Looking ahead, marine conditions will
continue to deteriorate as the deep low pressure shifts into the
Atlantic followed strong to gale-force NW winds along with rough
to very rough seas over much of the Gulf Sun into Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean
while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the
basin, as low pressure moves eastward across the west-central
Atlantic. A cold front has moved across the extreme NE Caribbean
this morning and extends from the extreme northern Leeward Islands
W-SW to the southern entrance to the Mona Passage, then hangs up
along the terrain of SW Haiti. Under this weather pattern, gentle
N winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean north of the front,
and gentle NE to E winds are south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate NE to E winds prevail, become E to SE across the NW
basin. with the exception of fresh trade winds near the coast of
Colombia, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and between Haiti and
Jamaica. Seas are 3 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SW
Caribbean, and 6 to 9 ft in the passages of the NE Caribbean and
strong Atlantic swell is now reaching the area behind the front.
Strong SW flow aloft is advecting tropical moisture from the Bay
of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula across west and central Cuba
into the Bahamas. Northerly low level wind flow is generating
some cloudiness and light showers across the northern slopes of
the interior mountains of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands. Patches of low level moisture, with isolated to
scattered passing showers, are noted elsewhere, more concentrated
over the SW part of the basin.

For the forecast, a stationary front over the far northeast
Caribbean will dissipate through Sat. Weak high pressure north of
the front will support relatively benign marine conditions into
late Sat. The pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves
through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun
afternoon. Looking ahead, deep low pressure north of the area will
support strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas following
the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds
may reach gale force late Mon over the Yucatan Channel and the far
northwest Caribbean with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong
winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest
Caribbean Tue into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N
Atlantic waters through today.

A complex low center of 996 mb is located E of Bermuda near
33N57.5W, with a secondary 996 mb low near 30.5N60.5W. The
associated cold front extends from near 32N59W SW through 20N60W
to the Anegada Passage then passes just S of Puerto Rico. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection continues to affect the
region N of 23N from the front to 40W. Further S along the front,
a band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is along the
front. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of gale-force
southerly winds within 180 nm E of the front and N of 27N, while
westerly gales on the S side of the low center are N of 26N
between 53W and 62W. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are within the gale winds
W of the front, and 8 to 11 ft E of the front. The low pressure
and associated front are also producing a large area of fresh to
strong winds that cover mainly the waters N of 22N between 45W
and 65W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. The remainder of the western
Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb
high pressure situated over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another ridge
dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic. Gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the
tropical Atlantic. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front reaching the northern
Leeward Islands will slowly shift east of the area through late
Sat. Another cold front will move south of 30N and west of Bermuda
early Sat, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun before lifting
north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through
the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will build
off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late Sun
ahead of the low. Looking ahead, the low pressure and an
associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and
Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by NE winds
to gale force and rough to very rough seas.

$$
Ramos
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