[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure
just west of Bermuda from 29N61W SW to 23N65W to Haiti adjacent
waters. Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the
region N of 26N from the front to 50W. Ongoing near gale to gale-
force W to NW winds behind and ahead of the front will continue to
affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front
continues an eastward track. Seas currently 12 to 14 ft will
increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below
gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and
diminishing seas into Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N17W to 05N30W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 09N east of 20W to the
African coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from a 1024 mb high pressure centered
over SE United States. This is leading to light to gentle,
anticyclonic flow across the basin. Slight seas are present
across the eastern Gulf, while smooth seas are prevalent across
the western Gulf. Scattered weak convection is observed north of
21N and west of 91W.

For the forecast, relatively quiet marine conditions are
expected to change little through Fri. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the western Gulf Fri night, then shift E into Sun, in advance of
a cold front. By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move
east of the Gulf, with strong to possibly gale-force W to NW
winds along with rough seas expanding across much of the basin
Mon through Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are present off the coast
of Colombia and in the southwest Caribbean, with mainly moderate
NE winds and seas in the northwest Caribbean. Across the
remainder of the basin, mostly gentle E winds and slight seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh N winds will diminish offshore Nicaragua
today. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will
force fresh to locally strong NE winds offshore Colombia
tonight. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively
low through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest
Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh S winds to the west
of 75W. Behind the front, strong to near gale force W winds
will build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme northwest
Caribbean Mon and Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gale warning in effect for portions of Atlantic waters
south of Bermuda through Fri.

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N46W to 19N57W to near
Puerto Rico and the northernmost Leeward Islands, with an
attendant 1015 mb low along the trough axis near 26N48W. Ahead
of the trough, north of 26N and east to 35W, scattered moderate
convection is ongoing along with moderate to fresh S winds and
moderate seas north of 22N. Behind the trough, scattered weak
convection is observed north of 24N to 58W. Light to gentle SW
winds increase to moderate westward of the trough axis to 57W
and fresh to strong to 60W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in
this area. Elsewhere east of 60W, moderate to locally strong
trades and moderate to rough seas are prevalent south of 22N and
gentle E winds and moderate seas north of 22N. The waters west
of 60W are dominated by the low pressure and cold front that are
detailed in the Special Features section. Outside of gale
conditions, fresh to strong cyclonic winds dominate the waters
north of 20N, west to 78W, with the remaining waters mainly in
moderate to fresh winds. Seas are moderate to rough across this
area.

For the forecast, the above mentioned trough will dissipate
today. Low pressure west of Bermuda will strengthen as it moves
ESE along and just north of 31N through Fri, before lifting NE
away from area waters. Strong to gale-force cyclonic winds and
rough to very rough seas will accompany this broad low pressure
for waters north of 24N into Fri. Another cold front will move
SW across northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing
fresh to strong W winds on both sides of the front north of 28N
into Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across
the northwest waters Mon.

$$
Ramos
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