[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
Atlantic will force fresh to near gale-force easterly winds across
the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Gale force
winds are expected to pulse offshore Colombia tonight through Sun
night. Seas should peak near 12 ft during each night's late
night/early morning hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough stretches from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 02S30W and to
02S44W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present south
of 03N and west of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 24N and east of
94W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Gulf,
mainly east of 87W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure in the wake of a cold front dominates
the basin with decaying W-NW swell north of the Yucatan Channel.
Strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan in the evenings
through the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds
with slight to moderate seas can be expected through the weekend
and into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras. Pockets of low-level moisture sustain isolated
showers in the Gulf of Honduras, south of Cuba and Hispaniola and
the NE Caribbean waters. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh
to strong easterly trade winds are prevalent in the eastern and
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The highest
seas are found in the south-central Caribbean and the waters
passages of the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will pulse off the northern
coast of Colombia at night through the weekend. A stationary front
from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate tonight
into Sat. Moderate to rough seas are possible near the Yucatan
Channel through Sat. High pressure will build in as the front
washes out. This will bring moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas across much of the basin, with locally strong winds
near the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the
Lee of Cuba. Similar winds may develop near the Gulf of Honduras
by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N71W to central Cuba. A few
showers are evident near the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong
westerly winds are found between the cold front to the waters off
NE Florida and north of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft.
Fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present between
the cold front to 62W and north of 28N.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to 17N55W and a
few showers are noted near the boundary. The pressure gradient
between a 1040 mb high pressure system positioned in the far
north Atlantic and lower pressures associated with the
aforementioned boundary support fresh to strong N-NE winds north
of the surface trough and east of 65W. Seas in the area described
are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N41W. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted
in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic west of 40W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N72W
to central Cuba will reach from 31N68W to the SE Bahamas early
Sat, then from 31N61W to eastern Cuba early Sun where it will
stall and gradually dissipate. Strong winds occurring on either
side of the front N of 29N will diminish by Sat night. Rough seas
will accompany these winds and subside by Sun morning. Large N-NE
swell across the SE waters will linger through the weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure will build in the wake of the front
through early next week with more tranquil marine conditions
expected.

$$
Delgado
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