[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.3N 56.5W at 30/2100
UTC or 400 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SW at
4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are
20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to
19N between 49W and 59W. A turn toward the west-northwest and
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and
Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe
could become a hurricane early next week. Swells generated by
Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 22.6N 51.5W at 30/2100 UTC
or 700 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
20 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection from 19N to 22N
between 45W and 51W. The cyclone is expected to continue moving
northwestward through Sunday before turning northward on Monday.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Rina is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday, then
dissipate early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe
  and Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W, from 03N to 20N, moving westward
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N
between 29W and 38W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 10N35W. The ITCZ continues from 10N35W to 11N51W. Scattered
showers are noted from 07N to 14W between 20W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to New
Orleans. A surface trough extends from 26N81W to 24N84W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails near these features across the
Florida peninsula and the southern half of the basin mainly S of
25N. Another trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with
scattered moderate convection reaching the Yucatan Peninsula and
adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are depicted in
the northern offshore waters N of 27N in association to the
aforementioned front, with seas 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds
prevail in the remaining basin along with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will start to drift
southward as a cold front later this weekend then dissipate early
next week. As the front shifts southward, the fresh winds, with
locally strong winds, will expand southward to the central basin
later this weekend to the middle of next week before winds start
to diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast
elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Manly moderate trades winds prevail in the central and
northeastern Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. Otherwise, gentle
trade winds, with seas 1-3 ft are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 16.2N
56.7W Sun morning, 16.6N 57.4W Sun afternoon, 17.4N 58.1W Mon
morning, 18.5N 58.9W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near
19.9N 59.5W Tue morning, and 21.6N 59.7W Tue afternoon. Philippe
will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.7N 59.0W
Wed afternoon. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the
Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to
subside by the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds
will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are
forecast in the Caribbean Mon through Thu, except moderate to
fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. In
addition, please refer to the Tropical Waves section for
convection in the tropical Atlantic.

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to 29N81W. A
surface trough extends from 30N73W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near these boundaries mainly W of 70W. Moderate
to fresh NE winds follow the front along with moderate seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across and N of Cuba
and Hispaniola in association to an upper-level trough. To the E,
a stationary front extends across the north-central Atlantic
from 31N33W to 28N46W to 31N57W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are N of this boundary along with seas up to 8 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and seas 3-6 ft will prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 16.2N
56.7W Sun morning, 16.6N 57.4W Sun afternoon, 17.4N 58.1W Mon
morning, 18.5N 58.9W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near
19.9N 59.5W Tue morning, and 21.6N 59.7W Tue afternoon. Philippe
will change little in intensity as it moves to near 25.7N 59.0W
Wed afternoon. Rough seas generated from Philippe will impact the
waters E of 65W through at least the middle of next week. A
stationary front off the coast of northern Florida will start to
shift south and east as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong
winds north of the front later this weekend into early next week.

$$
ERA
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