[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 302047
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

Visible satellite imagery shows the exposed center of Rina is well
displaced from deep convection, as strong northwesterly shear
continues to impact the storm. The intensity is held at a possibly
generous 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective
and objective satellite estimates.

The intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through Sunday. Given
Rina's structural trends today, and model simulated IR satellite
data over the next couple of days, the forecast shows Rina
degenerating into a remnant low Sunday evening. The strong shear as
diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to continue impacting Rina and its
remnants until the cyclone dissipates early next week. Even if the
shear isn't enough to prevent convective reformation, Rina will
likely struggle with dry mid-level relative humidities.

Rina is now moving northwestward at a slightly faster 12 kt. The
storm or its remnant low should continue to track northwestward and
then northward along the northern periphery of Philippe for the next
couple of days. The new track forecast is very similar to the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 22.6N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 23.5N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 25.1N  54.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 27.0N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 29.0N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
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