[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Sep 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.0N 55.9W at 29/2100
UTC or 410 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are
17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 19N
between 50W and 57W. A gradual turn toward the west and northwest
is forecast on Sunday. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next few days. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions
of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office for
details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 20.0N 47.8W at 29/2100 UTC
or 870 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 16N to 21N between
42W and 47W. A slightly faster northwestward motion is forecast
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by Monday. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through
early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe and Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 25W, from 04N to 20N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 10N between 19W and 29W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 15N17W and moves southward to
07N42W. The ITCZ continues from 07N42W to 07N49W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave described above,
scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front prevails across the NE corner of the basin from
28N83W to 29N90W. A surface trough is analyzed S of the front from
26N82W to 21N87W. These features are enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the eastern half of the basin, including the
Florida Peninsula. Surface ridging over the SE CONUS just N of
the front is tightening slightly the pressure gradient, thus
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds along the northern
Gulf waters N of 27N, with seas 2-5 ft. Elsewhere outside of
convection, light to gentle winds with seas 1-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across
the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate seas
through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin Sun
night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
are forecast elsewhere through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Philippe.

An upper level trough located south of Haiti is producing
scattered moderate convection in the area. Another area of
convection is depicted in the western Caribbean is association to
a trough that extends to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from the
Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central
Caribbean and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas are
slight basin-wide.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 17.6N
56.2W Sat morning, 17.3N 56.5W Sat afternoon, 17.2N 57.0W Sun
morning, 17.6N 57.4W Sun afternoon, 18.3N 58.0W Mon morning, and
19.5N 58.3W Mon afternoon. Philippe will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 22.9N 58.7W Tue afternoon. Rough seas
across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated
by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by the middle of
next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Philippe, T.S.
Rina, and the tropical wave in the east Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is depicted from the western
Bahamas to 31N and west of 74W in association to a stationary
front that extends from 31N75W to 29N81W. Behind the front
northeast fresh winds are depicted, with seas up to 8 ft. Gentle
to moderate northeast and east winds and moderate seas dominate
the subtropical waters outside of the tropical cyclones.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to
17.6N 56.2W Sat morning, 17.3N 56.5W Sat afternoon, 17.2N 57.0W
Sun morning, 17.6N 57.4W Sun afternoon, 18.3N 58.0W Mon morning,
and 19.5N 58.3W Mon afternoon. Philippe will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 22.9N 58.7W Tue afternoon. Rough seas
generated from the storm will impact the waters E of 65W through
at least the middle of next week. Tropical Storm Rina will move
to 20.5N 48.8W Sat morning, 21.4N 50.2W Sat afternoon, 22.8N 52.0W
Sun morning, 24.4N 53.8W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical
depression near 25.9N 55.1W Mon morning, and become a remnant low
and move to 27.8N 55.7W Mon afternoon. Rina will dissipate Tue
afternoon.

$$
ERA
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