[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.5N 55.2W at 29/0900
UTC or 450 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SW at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
14 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 20N
between 48W and 58W. Philippe is forecast to continue to move
southwest through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the west
and northwest is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Little change
in strength is expected during the next day or so, but some
strengthening is possible over the weekend. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 18.9N 46.6W at 29/0900 UTC
or 940 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 21N between
40W and 47W. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion, with a
slight increase in forward speed, is expected for the next few
days. Slight strengthening is forecast later today, followed by
little change in intensity through Saturday. Gradual weakening is
expected to begin Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward 10
knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
12N between 17W and 25W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 09N22W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W
to 04N43W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between
25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay NW to New Orleans.
Surface ridging over the SE CONUS just N of the front is
tightening slightly the pressue gradient, thus supporting moderate
to locally fresh NE to E winds along the northern gulf waters N of
27N. This front is also supporting scattered showers in the NE
gulf. Light to gentle variable wind and slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue
across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate
seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin
Sun night into Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
forecast elsewhere through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.5N 55.2W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is supporting
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central Gulf and
light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas are slight basin-
wide.

For the forecast, Philippe will move to 18.3N 55.4W this
afternoon, 17.9N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.0W Sat afternoon,
17.1N 56.4W Sun morning, 17.1N 56.8W Sun afternoon, and 17.6N
57.2W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it
moves near 20.0N 57.9W early Tue. Rough seas across the forecast
zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm
Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week south of
17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the weekend.
Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.5N 55.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Gentle to moderate east and southeast winds and moderate seas
dominate the subtropical waters west and east of the tropical
cyclones.

For the forecast W of 55W, Philippe will move to 18.3N 55.4W this
afternoon, 17.9N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.0W Sat afternoon,
17.1N 56.4W Sun morning, 17.1N 56.8W Sun afternoon, and 17.6N
57.2W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it
moves near 20.0N 57.9W early Tue. Rough seas ahead of the storm
will continue to spread east of 68W through the end of the week.

$$
Ramos
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