[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Sep 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.6N 52.7W at 27/0900
UTC, or 595 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 18 to
19 ft near and just northeast of the center. The radius of 12 ft
or greater seas extends outward to 300 nm from the center in the N
semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate with scattered strong
convection is occurring within 360 nm of the center in the E
semicircle and 120 nm NW quadrant. Philippe continues to struggle
due to strong southwesterly shear. A west to west-northwest motion
and a gradual weakening trend are expected during the next few
days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Gale Warning Associated with Invest Area (AL91):
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 17N southward
through a 1007 mb low (AL91) at 11N42W, and moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
270 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. A large area of
fresh to near-gale force E to SE winds with 8 to 11 ft seas are
present from 09N to 20N between 36W and 45W. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. The chance of development within the next 48
hours is high. Gale force winds are forecast to develop with this
low pressure near 13N44.5W this evening. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 19N southward
across Central America and into the East Pacific. It is moving
west at 10 kt. Aided by mid-level diffluent flow, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15N to 22N between
80W and 88W, with the strongest convection located between the
Isle of Youth and the western tip of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 18N16W to 09N20W to 07N32W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 12N between 23W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface trough extends southwestward from Destin, Florida
to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are
occurring across the northern Gulf. Another surface trough runs
southwestward from northeastern Florida to Sarasota, Florida to
25N83.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from the Yucatan Channel northeastward to the Ft. Myers, FL area.
Moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted in the
southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Straits of
Florida. Gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the broad surface trough will drift slowly W
through tonight before dissipating. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to the east of the trough, over the
eastern half of the Gulf, through tonight. Meanwhile, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and slight seas will prevail across the
basin through early Thu. Winds are forecast to increase over the
northern Gulf the end of the week into the weekend as high
pressure ridging strengthens over the southeastern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
scattered to numerous thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 60W
and 66W, including over the Lesser Antilles. Thunderstorms are
also seen north of Jamaica. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft
seas prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades
and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to near
19.5N57W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near
19.5N60W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low near 19.5N62W
early Sat morning. Seas are building across the waters east of the
Leeward Islands ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. High pressure
north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight.
Winds across the Caribbean Sea will then diminish late this week
into this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe and a Gale Warning related to Invest
AL91.

Convergent southeasterly winds to the east of a surface trough
over Florida are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N,
mainly west of 74W. The Atlantic ridge associated with the
Bermuda and Azores Highs is supporting light to gentle winds north
of 26N between 30W and the Florida coast. Seas are 3-5 ft west of
65W and north of 25N. South of 25N and west of 65W, moderate
trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail. From 26N to 31N and between 30W
and 65W, seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Fresh to locally
strong NE trades and 6 to 10 ft seas prevail in between the Canary
Islands and Cabo Verde Islands. Strong winds and rough seas
associated with Tropical Storm Philippe and Invest AL91 are
occurring from 10N to 25N between 36W and 59W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe will move
to near 19.5N57W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression
near 19.5N60W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low near
19.5N62W early Sat morning. Rough seas ahead of the storm have
moved W of 55W, and will continue to spread east of 65W through
the end of the week. Elsewhere, seas will build tonight and Thu
north of the Bahamas and east of Florida in NE swell.

$$
Hagen
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