[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 270845
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2023

Philippe continues to be a disorganized tropical cyclone.
Satellite imagery shows a cloud pattern consisting of bursting deep
convection in an amorphous-looking blob just east of the estimated
center with a few areas of convection farther to the east and
southeast.  Although there was some evidence earlier of a
convective band over the eastern periphery of the circulation, that
feature has since broken up into less-organized patches of showers
and thunderstorms.  The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt
based on earlier scatterometer measurements.  However, subjective
and objective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest a weaker storm.

Philippe is expected to remain in a sheared environment, and
ingesting drier low- to mid-level air, over the next few days.
Wind fields from both the ECMWF and GFS models show Philippe's
circulation weakening below tropical storm strength around 48 hours
and beyond.  Simulated satellite imagery from those models also
depict the system as lacking sufficient organized deep convection to
be considered a tropical cyclone while it approaches the northern
Leeward Islands.  The official intensity forecast, like the previous
one, shows Philippe degenerating into a remnant low pressure area
around 72 hours.

The cyclone continues on a mainly westward heading at around 280/10
kt.  Philippe is currently being steered by the flow to the south
of a weak mid-level anticyclone, and is expected to move
west-northwestward on the southwest side of this high during the
next couple of days.  In the latter part of the forecast period,
the weakening and increasingly shallow system should turn toward
the west-southwest following the low-level trade winds.  The
official track forecast has again been shifted a little southward in
3-5 days, following the TVCN consensus solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 17.6N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.4N  54.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 19.1N  55.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 19.6N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.6N  58.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 19.5N  60.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 19.4N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 19.0N  64.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 19.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net