[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 261432
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2023

Philippe continues to struggle due to strong west-southwesterly
shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest.
The low-level center is completely exposed and deep convection
remains well removed to the east of the center.  The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 42 kt, and based on
that data, the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 40 kt.

The strong shear is not expected to let up over the next several
days, which should keep the storm asymmetric and weak.  A
combination of the shear and dry air entrainment should lead to a
gradual decay, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF
models suggest that Philippe will likely degenerate into a remnant
low in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope and now shows the system becoming a
remnant low by day 4.

Philippe continues to move westward, and it has not gained much
latitude over the past 24 hours due to its sheared structure.
Based on the previous track, the expected asymmetric structure, and
the new model guidance, the NHC track forecast is again shifted to
the left as Philippe is expected to continue to move in the low- to
mid-level flow.  This forecast lies on the southern side of the
guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 17.3N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 17.9N  51.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 18.9N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 19.8N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 20.7N  56.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 21.2N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 21.2N  59.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 21.2N  62.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 21.3N  65.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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