[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia is near 37.1N 77.6W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Peak seas, which are N of the area, are up to 15 ft off the
mid-Atlantic coast. The center of Ophelia is expected to turn
toward the north-northeast and northeast, moving across eastern
Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula through Sunday. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next day or so. The post-
tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal boundary
Sunday night or early Monday. Swells generated by Ophelia will
continue to affect much of the east coast of the United States
through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 15.4N 40.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Peak
seas near the center are up to 13 ft. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the NE semicircle.
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from roughly 12N
to 21N and between 33W and 42W. A continued westward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early
next week. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few
days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Ophelia and Philippe.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between 18W and 29W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are found near the
northern portion of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues westward to 14N33W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N46W to 07N58W. No deep convection is noted aside
from the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the SE Gulf of Mexico, abundant tropical
moisture and divergence aloft continue to support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms east of 87W and south of 27N.
The remainder of the Gulf is under fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft
are found east of 90W and south of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a surface trough over the southeast Gulf
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift
slowly into the western Gulf through early next week and
dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the
north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern will support gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin
through the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave
in the eastern Caribbean.

A surface trough enters the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico
and along with favorable upper level support, continue to sustain
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. The storm
activity is mainly affecting the waters between Cuba and the
Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Similar activity is also seen off
northern Panama, within 120 nm. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and
central Caribbean through early next week, with fresh to strong
pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia during
mainly the overnight and early morning hours. Looking ahead, seas
will build in mixed NE and E swell across waters east of the
Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of newly formed Tropical Storm
Philippe, currently over the eastern Atlantic. Philippe is
expected to turn NW before reaching 55W next week, and move into
the central Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continue to
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 75W
and south of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough well north of the
Leeward Islands and an upper level low near 27N58W result in
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 29N
and between 52W and 62W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are present in the area described. Elsewhere west
of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1027 mb high
pressure system positioned between Nova Scotia and the Azores. In
the far eastern Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in western Africa sustain moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas of 6-8 ft from 17N and 25N and east of 25W. In the
rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough over the northern Bahamas will
move westward into Florida through Sun. Weak high pressure will
build from the north-central Atlantic north of 28N in the wake of
the trough. Looking ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell
across waters northeast of the Leeward Islands starting Mon,
ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. is near 15.4N 40.9W at 11 PM
EDT, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Philippe is expected to turn NW by Tue and brush along the far
eastern zones on Wed and Thu. Also, low pressure moving off the
eastern seaboard may bring fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas off northeast Florida by late Thu.

$$
DELGADO
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