[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 240247
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023

Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm.  Geostationary
satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the
northeast of the low-level center.  Recent satellite-derived wind
data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and
winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak.  The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT
observations.

The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt.  This
general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe
moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge.  By 60 h, the storm
should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it
reaches a weakness in the ridge.  The latest track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to
the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5.

Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus
slowly strengthen in the next few days.  This is possibly due to
some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air.  Beyond day
3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough,
that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also
increase upper-level difluence.  The intensity guidance generally
favors some slight intensification during this period.  The latest
NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly
above the consensus aid, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 15.4N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.5N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 15.9N  44.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 16.3N  47.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 16.7N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 17.4N  50.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 18.3N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 21.2N  53.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 23.5N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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