[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 232053
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ophelia continues to weaken as it crosses into southeastern
Virginia. The radar presentation has been gradually degrading as the
Doppler velocities continue to decrease. However, there remains a
WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound reporting surface winds between
30-35 kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass also showed
tropical-storm-force winds well to the northeast in association with
an offshore frontal boundary. Thus, Ophelia will remain a tropical
storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt for this advisory.

Ophelia is still moving northward at 360/10 kt. Little has changed
with the forecast reasoning, as Ophelia should gradually turn
northeastward over the next 12-24 hours, with the center gradually
losing definition as it begins to merge with the aforementioned
frontal boundary off the mid-Atlantic coastline. The latest track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest
NHC track forecast is quite similar, if just a touch north, of the
prior forecast. Ophelia should continue to gradually spin down
inland, though higher winds may still continue to be observed with
the frontal boundary to the system's northeast. By tomorrow, Ophelia
is expected to merge with this frontal boundary, marking its
transition to post-tropical status, with the system expected to
become fully absorbed by early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward along
the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastline within the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

2. Storm surge inundation will continue through this evening over
portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia, including Pamlico Sound and the tidal rivers of the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 36.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/0600Z 37.9N  77.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1800Z 39.1N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  25/0600Z 39.6N  73.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Papin
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