[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KLWX 231507
HLSLWX
MDZ017-018-240000-

Tropical Storm Ophelia Local Statement Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL162023
1107 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

This product covers Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland,
Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia

**Tropical storm conditions ongoing across Southern Maryland**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calvert and St. Marys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 230 miles south of Washington DC or about 260 miles south
      of Baltimore MD
    - 35.6N 77.2W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Ophelia has made landfall in eastern North Carolina, and
will continue tracking northward into southeast Virginia tonight.
Ophelia will cross the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday and transition into
a non-tropical area of low pressure.

Storm surge is the main threat to our area, especially along the
western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and the tidal Potomac River where
inundation of 1 to 3 feet is expected. In particular, St. Mary's County
could see significant impacts from surge where 2 to 3 feet of
inundation is likely. The highest water levels will be around high
tides Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected, with
localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. This may result in isolated
instances of flooding, especially for low-lying and flood prone areas.
The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday
night.

Tropical storm force wind gusts, likely between 50 and 60 mph, are
expected over southern Maryland and the nearby waters south of North
Beach MD along the Chesapeake Bay, and southeast of Cobb Island MD
along the tidal Potomac River. Winds are expected to begin increasing
late tonight, with the strongest winds from developing this afternoon
and evening. Gusty winds and a saturated ground will likely cause
downed trees and power outages, especially along the immediate western
shoreline of the Chesapeake Bay.

A brief tornado or two cannot out be ruled out across southern
Maryland this afternoon into tonight.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential significant impacts from the main surge event are now
unfolding along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal
Potomac River. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding along and
east of Interstate 95. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding along and
east of Interstate 95. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across Southern
Maryland. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Eastern West Virginia, Central and Western Maryland,
Northern and Northwestern Virginia, and District of Columbia, little
to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC around 6 PM this evening, or
sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

KR
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