[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Fri Sep 22 10:33:08 CDT 2023

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL162023
1132 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

**STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL
 POTOMAC, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ALBEMARLE SOUND**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning for Bertie, Chowan, Northumberland, and Westmoreland
    - A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Chesapeake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Northampton and
      Southampton

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Accomack, Bertie, Camden, Chesapeake, Chowan, Eastern
      Currituck, Gloucester, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James
      City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News,
      Norfolk/Portsmouth, Northampton, Northumberland, Pasquotank,
      Perquimans, Suffolk, Surry, Virginia Beach, Western Currituck,
      Westmoreland, and York
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dorchester, Gates,
      Hertford, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, Northampton,
      Richmond, Somerset, Southampton, and Wicomico

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 420 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 320 miles south
      of Norfolk VA
    - 32.3N 75.6W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Cyclone Sixteen continues to strengthen off the Southeast
coast this morning, and will move northward toward the mid-Atlantic
region through Saturday, possibly briefly becoming a tropical storm
before making landfall across the coastal Carolinas early Saturday.

Regardless of the exact track, the storm is expected to bring a myriad
of hazards to our area. These impacts include:

* Dangerous marine and high surf - Dangerous marine conditions are
  expected late tonight into Saturday due to the strong winds and high
  seas. Seas build to 11 to 16 feet late tonight into Saturday and
  remain elevated into Sunday. Large nearshore breaking waves of 6 to
  10 ft will result in beach erosion, dangerous surf conditions, and a
  high risk for rip currents.

* Heavy Rain - heavy downpours could cause localized minor flooding of
  roads and low-lying areas, especially across northeast north
  Carolina, eastern and central Virginia, and the lower eastern shore
  of Maryland and Virginia.

* Winds - Tropical Storm force wind is expected to arrive this evening
  into early Saturday and could lead to downed trees and scattered
  power outages.

* Coastal Flooding - Areas of moderate to major coastal flooding are
  possible during high tide late tonight into Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across EASTERN
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding, along with damage to
      porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. Some buildings
      experience window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes
      damaged, some destroyed, especially if poorly anchored or
      exposed to wind. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous
      projectiles.
    - Large trees snapped or uprooted, especially in areas where
      soils are saturated. Some roadway signs will be blown over.
    - Some roads will be impassable from large debris including
      bridges, causeways, and access routes.
    - Scattered to widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
      numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and
      property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
      waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
      isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result
      in additional damage near the shoreline.
    - Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
    - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected marinas and docks.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts
include:
    - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift
      currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken
      foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
Potential impacts include:
    - Some tornadoes are expected, some of which could be intense. As
      a result, execution of emergency plans could be hindered in
      affected areas.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage, with a few areas
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes
      demolished, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled,
      and small boats tossed about.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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