[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Fri Sep 22 04:26:43 CDT 2023

WTUS82 KMHX 220926
HLSMHX
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-221730-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL162023
526 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 16 CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Beaufort, East Carteret, Mainland Hyde, Pamlico, and
      Southern Craven
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Onslow, Hatteras Island, Mainland Dare, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Tyrrell, Washington, and West
      Carteret
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Lenoir, Martin, Northern Craven, and Pitt

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 330 miles south of Buxton NC or about 310 miles
      south-southeast of Morehead City NC
    - 30.5N 75.0W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, currently east of the Georgia-South
Carolina coast, will continue to strengthen as it moves toward
eastern North Carolina today and tonight. Regardless of development,
moderate to locally significant impacts will occur across eastern
North Carolina, with the greatest impacts along the coast.

Life threatening storm surge, inundation 2 to 5 ft above ground
level, is possible across all coastal areas today into the weekend.
The most extensive impacts are expected to be along the lower
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, with at least minor overwash also possible
along the Outer Banks. There is also the potential for rapid water
level rises for soundside Outer Banks late Saturday and Saturday
night when the winds shift.

Tropical storm force winds could start impacting portions of eastern
North Carolina this morning with strong winds continuing through
Saturday, potentially bringing scattered tree damage and power
outages mainly along and east of Hwy 17.

Heavy rain will bring widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
with isolated amounts up to 7 inches possible, bringing the threat
of localized flash flooding especially in low-lying, urban, and poor
drainage areas.

A few tornadoes could produce locally significant damage, mainly
east of Highway 17 late today into early Saturday.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected for all coastal waters, the
sounds and rivers, with strong winds and dangerous seas building to
create treacherous conditions for mariners. Localized ocean overwash
is expected along the coast due to high surf. Stronger and more
frequent rip currents will also exist along area beaches through the
weekend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across all of eastern North Carolina north of Surf City.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across Eastern North Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across areas east of Highway 17 and the Outer Banks. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across areas along and west of Highway 17.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across areas along and east of Highway 17. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across areas along and west of Highway 17.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across areas along and east of Highway 17. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across areas west of Highway 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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