[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Thu Sep 21 22:23:59 CDT 2023

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL162023
1123 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW
PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Accomack, Camden, Eastern Currituck, Gloucester,
      Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster,
      Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth,
      Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Suffolk, Surry, Virginia
      Beach, Western Currituck, and York
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Bertie, Chowan, Northumberland, and Westmoreland
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chesapeake,
      Dorchester, Gates, Hertford, Inland Worcester, Maryland
      Beaches, Richmond, Somerset, and Wicomico

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 610 miles south of Ocean City MD or about 510 miles south
      of Norfolk VA
    - 29.5N 75.3W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 3 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 remains offshore of the southeast US
coast, and will continue to strengthen as it moves toward eastern
North Carolina and the lower mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days.
The center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North
Carolina Friday night and early Saturday, before lifting across eastern
North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday into Sunday. Regardless of exact track, impacts are expected
from this system over northeast North Carolina, central and eastern
Virginia, and the lower eastern shore, with the greatest
impacts along the coast.

Tropical Storm force wind is expected to arrive Friday night into
early Saturday and could lead to downed trees and scattered power
outages. Areas of moderate to major coastal flooding are possible
during high tide Friday night into Saturday.

Heavy rain could produce areas of flash flooding of low lying areas.
3 to 5 inches of rain is possible along the coast, with 2-3 inches
possible inland. There is also a limited threat of tornadoes along the
coast of northeast NC.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday
due to the strong winds and high seas. Seas build to 10 to 15 feet
Friday night into Saturday and remain elevated into Sunday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs
      will sustain damage.
    - A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving
      conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. Potential impacts
include:
    - Flooding from heavy rainfall may prompt evacuations and rescues
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen, with swift
      currents, and overspill their banks. Small streams, creeks, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures and/or weaken
      foundations. Some areas may experience areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures are expected.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across northeast North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
      numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and
      property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
      waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
      isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result
      in additional damage near the shoreline.
    - Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
    - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected marinas and docks.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the lower Maryland eastern shore.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across northeast North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.

Potential impacts include:
    - Some tornadoes are expected, some of which could be intense. As
      a result, execution of emergency plans could be hindered in
      affected areas.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage, with a few areas
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles
      tumbled, and small boats tossed about.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
eastern Virginia and the lower eastern shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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