[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212231
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nigel is centered near 43.7N 40.8W at 21/2100 UTC or
550 nm ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 32 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are currently
43 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 43N to 49N
between 35W and 43W. This general motion to the ENE is expected
to continue for the next 24 hours. Weakening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Nigel is forecast to become a post-
tropical cyclone tonight or early Friday. Hazards associated with
Nigel will remain well north of the TAFB forecast waters. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at website under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. Please
see the latest Nigel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 29.2N 75.9W
at 21/2100 UTC or 300 nm SE of Charleston South Carolina, moving
N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 25N to 31N
between 72W and 75W. A general NNW to N motion is expected into
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area late Fri into early Sat. Strengthening is expected
before landfall, and the system is forecast to become a tropical
storm offshore North Carolina late Fri. Regardless of whether
the system become a tropical storm, the system is expected to
bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Sixteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Broad low pressure is developing in
association with a eastern Atlantic tropical wave, centered near
13N30W. The wave and low are moving W at around 10 kt. Shower and
thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the low, a couple hundred
miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, has shown some signs of
organization this evening, with scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection extending from 12N to 17N between 26W and 31W.
Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present
within about 100 nm N of the low's center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. There is a MEDIUM chance of development through 48
hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak central Atlantic tropical wave previously along 38W has
dissipated late today.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, from 04N
to 23N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection has developed where this wave is interacting with an
upper level trough to the north, with some showers and
thunderstorms noted from 16N to 21N between 51W and 56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 18N16W and
continues to the aforementioned low pressure centered near 13N30W
to 10N49W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 04N to
07N between 21W and 26W and from 04N to 14N between 38W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered to the NE is dominating the basin.
There is a weak surface trough extending from near 29N86W to
25N84W that is inducing scattered moderate convection along and to
the SE of it, continuing E to the Florida coast. Mainly gentle NE
winds prevail across the Gulf, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Some
moderate winds are ongoing in the eastern Bay of Campeche, behind
a surface trough that moved W off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure will be in control of the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through most of the forecast
period allowing for generally gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds and slight seas, except pulsing to moderate to fresh
offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is located in the NE Caribbean just
W of the Leeward Islands, otherwise relatively dry air is
precluding showers and thunderstorms aside from diurnal activity
over land areas. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring
offshore near the border of Colombia and Venezuela, otherwise
mainly moderate trades prevail, except for light winds in the Lee
of Cuba. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the SW Caribbean, 1 to 3 ft in the
NW Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds in the central
Caribbean will change little through the next few days. Trade
winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds offshore northern
Colombia and northwest Venezuela during the overnight and early
morning hours into early next week. Elsewhere moderate or weaker
winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section section above for
information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen located N of the
Bahamas and low pressure forming just E of the Cabo Verde Islands
that has the potential for tropical development into the weekend.

The stationary front extending NE from Potential Tropical Cyclone
Sixteen is beginning to lift N as a warm front. This front extends
from the system near 29N76W to 31N74W. The front that stretched SW
from Sixteen has devolved into a surface trough, and this evening
is located from around 29N74 into the northern Bahamas. Convection
associated with all these features is described in the Special
Features section above. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, a
weak surface trough from 30N55W to 26N59W is producing little in
the way of sensible weather, otherwise high pressure, centered
near 29N35W at 1020 mb, is dominating.

Aside from areas influenced by the previously depicted special
features, a band of moderate to locally fresh trades from 15N to
26N extends across the basin. To the north and south of these
trades, winds are light to gentle. Seas basin-wide range from 4 to
7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
will move to 30.8N 75.8W Fri morning, and will be N of the
forecast region near 32.6N 76.0W by Fri afternoon. In its wake, a
ridge will build from E to W across the area through the upcoming
weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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