[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee is centered near 46.5N 63.7W at
17/0900 UTC or 30 nm WNW of Charlottetown Prince Edward Island,
moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. On
the track forecast, faster northeastward motion is expected over
the next couple of days, taking Lee over Newfoundland this
afternoon and over the Atlantic waters by early Monday. Gradual
weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lee
could dissipate on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 34.0N 41.4W at 17/0900
UTC or 740 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Margot is expected to turn
northward on Monday and eastward on Tuesday. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Margot could
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical Storm Nigel is centered near 23.0N 48.6W at 17/0900 UTC
or 850 nm NE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft.
Numeorous moderate to strong convection is from 20N to 27N between
42W and 52W. On the track forecast, a general northwest to north-
northwest motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Nigel is expected to become a hurricane on Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W, from 01N to 12N, moving westward 10
knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
11N between 33W and 41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 08N22W to 07N32W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 10W and 20W, and
from 03N to 12N between 22W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends along southern Mississippi, southern
Louisiana and along most of the Texas coast. This front is
supporting isolated to scattered showers across the northern Gulf
waters N of 26N. Similar convection is over the NE Mexico offshore
waters. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas
dominate acrossthe gulf, except for moderate NE to E winds in the
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak cold front is expected to move off New
Orleans and Mississippi into the N-central and NE Gulf today
followed by N to NW moderate winds and isolated to scattered
showers. The front is forecast to move E of the area tonight, with
a reinforcing front Mon. A weak surface ridge will develop
afterward, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds through
Wed, freshening in the NE Gulf Thu. Otherwise, winds will pulse to
moderate to fresh W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds are ongoing in the central basin
along with slight to moderate seas. Gentle to locally moderate
winds are elsewhere with slight seas. Otherwise, scattered showers
and tstms are over the SW Caribbean being supported by the E
Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, northerly swell will continue to affect the NE
Caribbean Passages tonight through Wed due to Tropical Storm
Nigel, which is forecast to remain well NE of the area while
strengthening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail
across the Central Caribbean, locally fresh to strong off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, while gentle to moderate winds will
dominate elsewhere through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features Section for more details on Tropical
Storm Nigel.

Tropical Storm Nigel is near 23.0N 48.6W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving north-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Weak surface ridging is to the west and east of Nigel, which is
supporting light to gentle variable winds in the SW N Atlantic
waters. Seas are 7 to 8 in northerly swell. N of 20N and E of 20N
winds are moderate to fresh from the N to NE with seas between 5
to 9 ft. This winds and seas are being supported by a cold front
that extends from 30N10W to 26N21W to 31N30W.

For the forecast W of 55W, Nigel will move to 24.5N 49.7W this
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 51.0W Mon morning,
27.5N 52.5W Mon afternoon, 28.8N 54.0W Tue morning, 30.5N 55.4W
Tue afternoon, and 32.7N 55.8W Wed morning. Nigel will change
little in intensity as it moves near 38.0N 52.0W early Thu. Weak
surface ridging will prevail across the region through this
evening. A weak cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S.
coast tonight into early Mon with new high pres building down
behind it. The front may stall and linger along 27N/28N through
mid-week.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net