[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 170844
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

There haven't been a lot of changes with Margot overnight, with no
associated deep convection and an exposed low-level center.  The
initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt in accordance with the latest
Dvorak estimates.  Very dry mid-level air and upper-level
convergence will likely prevent any re-development of convection,
so the storm is now forecast to become post-tropical later today.
No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, with a
slight increase in winds possible as Margot interacts with an
upper-level trough in a couple of days, but not as a tropical
cyclone.

Margot is moving westward at about 8 kt.  It should turn northward
within 24 hours and then eastward or east-southeastward as it moves
around the subtropical ridge, finally dissipating in the hostile
environment.  The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one, near or just south of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 34.0N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 34.5N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0600Z 35.8N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 37.4N  42.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 38.2N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  19/1800Z 38.0N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  20/0600Z 37.0N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z 36.5N  31.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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