[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 162036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

Tropical Storm Margot's low-level center remains exposed, as strong
northerly upper-level winds displace the deep convection to the
south and west. The CIRA Layered Precipitable Water satellite
product shows that Margot has been nearly encircled by dry mid-level
air. The subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and the
objective intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 45 kt
for this advisory.

Since the last advisory, Margot has turned westward at 270/7 kt. The
tropical storm is forecast to continue a clockwise loop around a
mid-level ridge. As the ridge builds southeastward, Margot will
turn north, then back towards the east around the northern side of
the ridge. An eastward motion is forecast through the remainder of
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track
forecast.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are not expected to improve
through the forecast period. Model guidance continues to show that
Margot could lose its deep convection and degenerate into a remnant
low sooner than forecast. However, on Monday Margot is forecast to
interact with the southern periphery of a shortwave trough arriving
from the northwest. This could introduce enough instability to allow
convection to reform and for the system to slightly re-intensify. By
Wednesday, Margot will be left behind by the shortwave and should
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone west of the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 34.3N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 34.1N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 34.6N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 35.8N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 37.1N  41.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 38.2N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 38.2N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 37.4N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1800Z 37.5N  29.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci
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