[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lee, at 16/0600 UTC, is near
40.8N 65.9W. Lee is moving toward the NNE, or 15 degrees, 17
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85
knots. The hazards that will be affecting land are: wind,
rainfall, surf, and the storm surge. Hurricane-force winds are:
within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 80 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant; within 70 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 100 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
Tropical storm-force winds are: within 270 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant; within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 240 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 300
nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Sea heights that are 12
feet or higher are: 390 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 540 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 600 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant; and within 390 nm of the center
in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 42 feet. All the
precipitation is from 37N northward from 60W westward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 60W and
70W.

The center of Tropical Storm Margot, at 16/0300 UTC, is near
35.5N 38.0W. Margot is moving toward the SSW, or 200 degrees, 04
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65
knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 260 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 140 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant; within 130 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 220 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of
the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 390 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 210 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant; within 270 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 390 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum
sea heights are 21 feet. Expect: from 20N to 31N between 35W and
81W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures: winds 20 knots
or less. Seas from 8 feet to 11 feet in NW to N swell.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 30N to 38N between 24W and 42W.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Lee and Margot NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisories, at, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...Tropical Depression FIFTEEN...

The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen, at 16/0300 UTC,
is near 16.3N 44.7W. FIFTEEN is moving toward the NW, or
320 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots
with gusts to 40 knots. The sea heights that are 12 feet or
higher are: 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center
in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 12 feet.
Expect: SE winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and seas from
9 feet to 11 feet, from 15N to 21N between 41W and 46W.
Expect elsewhere: wind speeds 20 knots or less, and sea
heights from 8 feet to 10 feet in mixed swell, from 14N
to 26N between 38W and 50W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 120 nm to 240 nm of the center
in the NW semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is in the remainder of the area that is from 02N to 25N
between 37W and 51W.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more information.

Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 11N to 14N between 30W
and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 07N to 15N between 27W and 34W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 13N20W, 12N27W, and 13N36W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak inland stationary front passes through the U.S.A.
coastal plains, from SE Georgia, to the upper Texas Gulf
coast, and to south Texas. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is mostly inland, from 26N to 29N between
the Texas coastal waters and 101W.

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 29N93W. The surface
pressure gradient is flat and weak. The GFS model for 500 mb
shows a trough in parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate spans much of the area. Light
to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 2
feet, cover the area.

A weak ridge across the northern Gulf will dominate the
basin through the weekend, supporting mainly moderate
or weaker winds along with slight seas. Winds will pulse
to moderate to fresh W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening through the weekend. A weak cold front may drop
into the NE Gulf early next week with new high pres
building in behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends into the SE Caribbean Sea,
from an Atlantic Ocean 23N55W cyclonic circulation center.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 14N to 18N between 59W and 64W.

Fresh easterly winds are within 240 nm of the coasts of
Venezuela and Colombia between 67W and 77W. Moderate easterly
winds cover much of the area from Jamaica eastward. Moderate
NE winds are from 11N to 15N from 78W westward. Gentle winds
are in the remainder of the area. The surface pressure pattern
is flat and weak. The sea heights are: from 3 feet to 4 feet
from 80W eastward, except for 2 feet to the south of Jamaica;
1 foot elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 73W in Colombia
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 0.31 in Bermuda.

Northerly swell affecting the NE Caribbean Passages will
subside gradually tonight, then may build again early next
week due to Tropical Depression Fifteen which is forecast
to remain NE of the area. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will dominate the Central Caribbean, locally strong,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Lee, Tropical Storm Margot, and
Tropical Depression Fifteen.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
20N northward between 50W and 60W.

An Atlantic Ocean stationary front is along 31N/32N
between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from the NW Bahamas northward between
70W and 80W.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere,
away from the tropical cyclones. Fresh to strong NE winds
are within 360 nm of Africa from 16N to 25N. Moderate to
some fresh easterly winds are from the monsoon trough to
26N from T.D. Fifteen eastward. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Lee will continue to move N away from the area,
while associated large northerly swell gradually decays
through the weekend. Tropical Depression Fifteen is near
15.4N 44.0W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 11 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt,
and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Fifteen
will move to 16.7N 45.0W Sat morning, strengthen to
a tropical storm near 18.5N 46.6W Sat afternoon,
20.4N 48.4W Sun morning, 22.0N 50.1W Sun afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.6N 51.7W Mon morning,
and 25.1N 53.6W Mon afternoon. Fifteen will change
little in intensity as it moves to 28.0N 57.3W Tue
afternoon. Otherwise, high pres will prevail across
the waters through the weekend. A weak cold front
may move off the SE U.S. coast early next week with
new high pres building down behind it.

$$
mt
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