[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 160236
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

Margot's satellite presentation has changed little since the
previous advisory. A timely ASCAT-B overpass revealed peak winds of
around 50 kt, and a rather expansive wind field over the northern
semicircle of the storm.  Since there is typically some
undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity
remains 55 kt for this advisory.  This intensity is also in line
with the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5 or 55 kt.

Margot is moving south-southwestward at about 4 kt. The tropical
storm should turn southwestward to westward during the next day or
so as it completes a clockwise loop to the south of a mid-level
ridge.  By early next week, the ridge should continue to slide
eastward allowing Margot to turn northward, and then east-
northeastward later in the period.  The track guidance has again
trended toward a more southern and slower solution near the end of
the period, and the official forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.

Northerly vertical wind shear, marginal sea surface temperatures,
and dry air entrainment are expected to cause gradual weakening
during the next couple of days.  Margot may struggle to produce
organized deep convection in a couple of days, but an approaching
mid-latitude trough may aid in at least a continuation of convective
bursts keeping Margot a tropical cyclone.  By day 4, Margot is
forecast to be post-tropical as simulated satellite imagery from the
global models suggest the system will become devoid of convection
after that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 35.5N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 35.0N  38.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 34.4N  40.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 34.6N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 35.3N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 36.9N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 38.6N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 38.5N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0000Z 38.2N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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