[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 150854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

Margot is producing small, intermittent bursts of convection near
its partially exposed low-level center this morning. An ASCAT pass
over the western portion of the circulation from last night showed
that the winds within the max wind band have decreased by about
10-15 kt from 24 h ago, with peak vectors slightly above 50 kt.
These data and the current satellite presentation indicate Margot is
likely no longer a hurricane. The initial intensity is lowered to 60
kt for this advisory, which remains above the highest available
satellite intensity estimates.

The tropical storm is drifting east-southeastward (115/3 kt) within
weak steering currents, as a mid-level ridge continues to build over
the north Atlantic. Margot is forecast to make a clockwise loop
while it pivots around this ridge during the next couple of days.
The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly broader loop that is
consistent with the latest multi-model consensus aids. By early next
week, the ridge is forecast to become oriented to the east and south
of Margot, and the cyclone should turn northward and then eastward
within the flow between this feature and mid-latitude westerlies.
There is greater uncertainty in the long-range track forecast given
mixed signals in the global guidance as to whether Margot gets fully
caught in the westerlies (GFS) or stays farther south and continues
to meander over the central Atlantic (ECMWF). For now, the NHC
forecast is held near the simple consensus aids.

Margot is likely to continue weakening during the next couple of
days while it meanders over its own cool wake of sub-26C SSTs in an
increasingly dry and stable airmass. By Sunday, it could briefly
encounter slightly warmer waters while moving westward, but the
upper-level winds do not appear very conducive for much
strengthening. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery suggest Margot could struggle at times to sustain enough
organized convection to remain a tropical cyclone. While the
guidance suite suggests some minor intensity fluctuations are
possible during this period, the NHC intensity forecast remains
steady between 48-96 h in agreement with the IVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 36.7N  38.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 36.3N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 35.7N  38.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 35.1N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 34.8N  41.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 35.3N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 36.5N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 39.5N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 40.0N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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