[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.7N 68.3W at 14/2100 UTC or 180
nm W of Bermuda, moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast
of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move
across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Little change
in strength is expected through Friday afternoon. Some gradual
weakening is forecast Friday night and Saturday, but Lee is
expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of
days. Lee continues to be a large hurricane. Hurricane-force
winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555
km). Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.

Hurricane Margot is centered near 36.9N 39.3W at 14/2100 UTC or
590 nm W of the Azores, moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt with gusts to 85 kt. Large swell of up to 10 ft continues
north of 27N between 38W-54W. Fresh to strong winds associated
with Margot will remain N of 30N between 33W-44W through tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee
and Margot NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisories at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Invest AL97 in the Central Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms
show some organization in association with a broad low pressure
area located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and this system is very
likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt
across the central tropical Atlantic. Peak winds forecast are 25
kt and peak seas of 12 ft through 48 hr in connection with this
system. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N
between 38W and 48W. The chance of this feature developing into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to AL97 to 14N51W. Outside
of convection described above with AL97, scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-12W and E of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastline
enhancing convection mainly N of 28N. A weak 1015 mb high is
centered near 27N87W supporting light to gentle winds across the
basin. Seas are 1-3 ft.

For forecast, the ridge will dominate the basin throughout the
forecast period, supporting light to gentle winds N of 24N and
gentle to moderate winds S of 24N. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected across the western Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche
each late afternoon and evening through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Lee continues to move N away from the area. A weak
surface ridge is present along the spine of the Greater Antilles.
The resulting trades are gentle to moderate over the entire
Caribbean. 4-7 ft swells related to Lee are propagating through
the Mona Passage into the east-central Caribbean, with seas 2-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Lee will gradually weaken as it
passes west of Bermuda near 32.2N 68.0W this evening with maximum
sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Large N-NW swell across the
adjacent Atlantic will move through the NE Caribbean Passage will
gradually diminish this afternoon and tonight and then decrease
quickly Fri. Moderate E trade winds will return to the Caribbean
on Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, and Invest AL97.

A weak 1021 mb high is centered just north of our waters near
34N27W with a ridge extending west-southwestward to 27N45W.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail from the ridge equatorward to
the monsoon trough with seas of 5-9 ft. South of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft.
Farther west over the southwestern Atlantic, the winds are
dominated by the circulation of Lee with cyclonic winds extending
all the way from north of 20N between 60W-80W.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee will maintain intensity
as it lifts north of the area, passing to the west of Bermuda this
evening and reaching near 33.8N 67.9W late tonight. Lee will
continue to move farther away from the area through Fri and weaken
as an extratropical cyclone well north of the area over the NW
Atlantic by Sat evening. Long- period swell generated by Lee is
expected to impact all waters north through east of the Bahamas
through the weekend. High pressure will build across the area late
Fri through Sun. Low pressure across the eastern Atlantic, AL97,
is expected to approach the northeast part of the area Mon,
possibly as a tropical cyclone, and track northwestward over that
same area through Tue night leading to a significant increase in
winds and seas.

$$
ERA
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