[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lee, at 14/0900 UTC, is near 29.1N 68.1W,
or about 255 nm SW of Bermuda, moving N at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are near 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 953 mb. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane force
winds extend outward up to 90 nm from the center and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 250 nm. Seas of 12 ft or
greater extend outward from the center 435 nm NE quadrant, 420 nm
SE quadrant, 390 nm SW quadrant and 500 nm NW quadrant. The
maximum sea heights are 46 feet. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm S semicircle and 360 nm N
semicircle. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches and
Warnings are in effect for portions of coastal New England,
Atlantic Canada and Bermuda.

The center of Hurricane Margot, at 14/0900 UTC, is near 35.9N
40.3W. Margot is moving toward the NNE at 5 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 979 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. From 29N to 31N between 39W
and 49W, seas are 10-12 ft in N swell with winds up to 20 kt. The
winds over 25 kt associated with Margot will remain N of 31N for
the remainder of the cyclone's lifetime.

Invest AL97 in the Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of low
pressure along a tropical wave is near 13N38W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 10N to 19N between 36W and
44W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the low moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the central
tropical Atlantic. The chance of this feature developing into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 14N to 16N between 27W and 31W.
Scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 12N between 14W
and 17W. Scattered strong is from 04N to 09N between 18W
and 23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N
to 13N between 29W and 35W.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 15N48W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 15N
between 44W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N30W, to the INVEST AL97 low
pressure center, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 15N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An inland frontal boundary passes through the southern
sections of Alabama, to southern Mississippi, to
Louisiana, to East Texas, and beyond south central Texas.
A 1013 mb high pressure center is near 30N86W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 28N northward from 87W westward. Broad surface
low pressure is inland, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere from 85W
westward.

The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Mostly moderate or slower wind speeds are in the
western half of the Gulf. Mostly gentle to moderate
wind speeds are in the eastern half of the area.

A weak ridge across the northern Gulf will dominate
the basin throughout the forecast period, supporting
mainly light to gentle winds N of 24N and gentle to
moderate winds S of 24N. Moderate return flow will
develop across the W and SW Gulf Thu night. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected across the western
Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche each late
afternoon and evening through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward
from 70W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related
to Hurricane Lee. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is along 20N between 64W and 66W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the Windward
Passage westward.

Fresh easterly winds are from 14N southward between 64W
and 69W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere.
The sea heights are: 4 feet from the Mona Passage eastward;
3 feet in the coastal waters of Venezuela and Colombia;
and 2 feet elsewhere from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia
beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward between
75W in Colombia and 80W. Most of the related precipitation
is to the south of the monsoon trough.

Hurricane Lee is N of the area near 28.0N 67.7W at 11 PM EDT,
moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Lee is
expected to continue toward the N through Fri and exit the
region. Large N-NW swell across the adjacent Atlantic will
move through the NE Caribbean Passage through early Thu
before gradually diminishing Thu night and then decreasing
quickly Fri. Moderate E trade winds will return to the
Caribbean on Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, and the INVEST AL97.

Fresh or faster wind speeds are from 20N northward from
55W westward, with respect to Hurricane Lee. Strong
NE winds are from 18N to 26N from 22W eastward. Fresh
easterly winds are from 15N to 25N between 22W and 37W.
Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are: from 7 feet to 9 feet
from 07N southward from 30W eastward. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet in much of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean. An exception is for the sea heights that
are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from 23N southward
between 44W and 60W.

Hurricane Lee is near 28.0N 67.7W at 11 PM EDT, moving
north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts
to 110 kt. Minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Lee will
continue moving northward and reach near 29.6N 68.1W Thu
morning, near 31.9N 68.0W Thu evening, pass W of Bermuda
near 34.8N 67.2W Fri morning, and continue northward
across the NW Atlantic through the weekend. Long-period
swell generated by Lee is expected to impact all waters
north through east of the Bahamas through the weekend.
High pressure will build across the area late Fri through
Sun. Low pressure AL97 will approach the far eastern
part of the area Mon and Mon night, possibly as
a tropical cyclone.

$$
Hagen
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