[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 13 2023

CORRECTION

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

The center of Category Three Major Hurricane Lee, at
13/0600 UTC, is near 25.4N 66.9W. The hazards for land are:
wind, surf, and rainfall. LEE is moving toward
the NW, or 320 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 946 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Hurricane-
force winds are: within 110 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
70 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-
force winds are: within 210 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 200 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 150 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
170 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the
sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 360 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 390 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 300 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 375 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 42 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 23N to 26N between
65W and 68W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere from the southern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Puerto Rico northward between 58W and 72W.

The center of Hurricane Margot, at 13/0300 UTC, is near
32.7N 39.7W. Margot is moving toward the N, or 350 degrees,
10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts
to 90 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 60 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 70 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 230 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 160 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are
12 feet or greater is: within 270 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 280 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are 32 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 31N to 34N between 38W and 42W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder
of the area that is from 29N to 37N between 35W and 45W.

...in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean
(AL97 and AL98)...

A tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 18N southward.
A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave
near 13N. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 12N32W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 05N to 20N between 20W and 42W. This system is
expected to blend into one. The 1010 mb low pressure center
is expected to become dominant during the next day or two.
Gradual development of the low pressure center is expected
after the weather features combine. It is likely for
a tropical depression to form by this weekend. The movement
will be toward the west-northwest or northwest about 15 mph,
in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of this
feature developing into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours is medium.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

No other tropical waves are in the Atlantic Ocean,
nor in the Caribbean Sea, at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to the INVEST AL98 low pressure center,
to the INVEST AL97 low pressure center, to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 15N48W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

An inland frontal boundary passes through southern Mississippi,
to Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast, beyond the Texas
Big Bend. Any significant precipitation is inland. The GFS model
for 500 mb shows that a trough extends from the Florida Panhandle
to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N southward
between the Yucatan Channel to 95W. Isolated moderate is in the
coastal waters of the Florida Gulf coast.

The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet. The wind speeds
are gentle or slower.

A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters throughout the
forecast period supporting mainly light to gentle winds.
Moderate return flow will develop across the W and SW
Gulf Thu night. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected
across the western Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche
each late afternoon and evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward
from 72W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related
to Hurricane Lee. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 18N to 20N from the Dominican
Republic eastward.

Mostly moderate NE winds are from 24N in the Gulf of Mexico
southward from 80W westward. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are possible from the NE Caribbean Sea islands northward.
Moderate southerly winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward.
Broad moderate cyclonic wind flow is from 15N southward
between 67W and 77W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are: mostly from 3 feet
to 4 feet from 80W eastward, except for 2 feet in the coastal
waters of Venezuela along 70W, and to the south of Haiti,
Jamaica, and Cuba; 3 feet from 20N northward from 80W westward;
from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 73W in Colombia
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from the Windward Passage westward.
Most of this precipitation is in the broad surface
easterly wind flow.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 13/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 0.31 in Guadeloupe.

Hurricane Lee is well N of Puerto Rico, near 25.3N 66.7W
at 11 PM EDT, moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 946 mb. Lee will gradually begin to move
northward tonight through Wed and farther away from
Caribbean waters. Large N swell across the adjacent
Atlantic will gradually become NNW tonight through Thu,
moving through the Caribbean Passages and into the
Caribbean waters between the Leeward Islands and the
Mona Passage. Seas across these Caribbean Passages and
waters will diminish significantly Thu through Fri.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to
the Caribbean Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, the INVEST AL97,
and the INVEST AL98.

Moderate to fresh NE-to-E winds are from 40W eastward
from 14N to the line 31N20W 23N40W; and from 26N
northward between the two hurricanes. Gentle winds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights
are from 8 feet and higher from 21N northward between
30W and 50W. Hurricane Lee is affecting the sea heights
from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Lee is near 25.3N 66.7W at 11 PM EDT, moving
northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with
gusts to 120 kt. Minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Lee
will begin to turn northward tonight through Wed, reaching
near 26.1N 67.2W Wed morning, near 27.7N 67.8W Wed evening,
near 29.7N 68.2W Thu morning, near 32.1N 67.9W Thu evening,
and continue moving northward and pass W of Bermuda Thu night
through Fri. Large swell from Lee will propagate in all
directions and dominate the regional waters W of 55W through
Fri.

$$
mt
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