[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 130234
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

Margot's satellite appearance has improved since the previous
advisory. Infrared imagery indicates deep convection wraps
around the center, with cold cloud tops. Infrared and proxy-vis
satellite depict that an eye may also be trying to reappear. A
recent scatterometer pass shows that the system continues to have a
very large wind field. Subjective Dvorak estimates for this cycle
were T4.0/T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Using a blend of
these estimates and the improved satellite appearance, the initial
intensity for this advisory is raised to 75 kt.

Margot has started to move north-northwestward, and should continue
this motion with a slightly slower forward speed on Wednesday. In
about 2 to 3 days, there continues to be significant divergence in
the guidance envelope, and therefore there is higher than normal
forecast uncertainty. A ridge is forecast to build north of Margot
over the next couple of days. The GFS and ECMWF have two very
different solutions with how Margot interacts with this ridge, and
are on opposite sides of the guidance suite. The current NHC
forecast has not been adjusted much from the previous one, which
remains near the multi-model consensus aids, as there is no reason
to favor either global model solution at this time. It is possible
that larger track adjustments will be needed to future NHC
forecasts.

Margot's intensity should stay relatively steady, with slight
fluctuations, up or down, during the next several days. The
intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement in the short-term.
However, in about 2 to 3 days, similar to the track forecast there
is uncertainty in the intensity forecast as they are dependent on
one another. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, and lies near the multi-model consensus showing steady
weakening towards the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 32.7N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 34.0N  40.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 35.1N  40.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 36.1N  40.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 36.9N  40.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 37.3N  40.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 37.5N  40.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 38.4N  42.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 40.6N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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