[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 122043
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

As quickly as it re-appeared earlier today, Margot's eye
disappeared again this evening. Consequently, Dvorak-based
intensity estimates have decreased a little, with a blend of Data-T
and Current Intensity values supporting an intensity near 70 kt.
Based on recent AMSR microwave imagery, Margot still has a double
eyewall, and a SAR overpass earlier this morning indicated that the
winds in the outer eyewall were just as high as the inner one.

Margot has continued moving northward today, and should turn
north-northwestward tomorrow. Beyond about 60 h, there is a
significant increase in model forecast spread, and therefore,
forecast uncertainty. The ECMWF and GFS highlight this uncertainty,
showing very different forecasts for a ridge that is supposed to
build to the north of Margot over the next 3 days, which results in
a very different track for the hurricane. However, ensemble
forecasts from those models indicate that their deterministic model
solutions are part of a wide spectrum of possible tracks for Margot.
The ECMWF track ensemble, for instance, has approximately 27 degrees
of latitude spread between members at 120 h. We don't have a clear
reason to favor any one solution at this time, so the NHC forecast
is near the multi-model consensus. It is possible that large track
adjustments will be needed to future NHC forecasts.

For the next few days, Margot's intensity should stay relatively
steady, and this is supported by nearly every normally-reliable
intensity model. Beyond about 72 h, the track of Margot will have an
influence on its intensity, which increases the uncertainty.
Depending on the exact evolution and path of Margot, it could hold
its intensity for a bit longer, or quickly begin a transition to a
remnant low. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these solutions,
showing steady weakening, but the uncertainty in the intensity
forecast is also unusually high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 31.7N  39.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 33.2N  40.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 34.4N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 35.4N  41.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 36.4N  40.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 37.1N  40.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 37.5N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 38.1N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 40.0N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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