[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 120847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

Margot's eye became obscured in infrared satellite imagery a couple
of hours ago, but the hurricane still has a well-defined Central
Dense Overcast surrounded by convective banding features.  A dry
slot has become entrained into the eastern part of the circulation,
between the CDO and the outermost banding.  Based on consensus
Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity
is raised to 75 kt.

Margot is moving northward (360/11 kt) along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge emanating out of western Africa, and this
steering mechanism should keep the hurricane on a general
northward or north-northwestward trajectory for the next few
days.  A blocking ridge is forecast to form in 2-3 days over the
north Atlantic, which is likely to cause Margot to slow down during
the middle to latter part of the forecast period.  However, the
ridge may be relatively progressive, and by day 5 many of the track
models show the storm picking up some speed again once the ridge
gets out of the way.  The most notable change in the NHC track
forecast is that it's faster than the previous prediction on days 4
and 5 to better align with the latest guidance.

The hurricane is currently within a strongly diffluent environment
to the east of an upper-level trough, but the environment is
forecast to evolve to an anticyclone aloft and low shear within the
next 12 hours.  Continued strengthening is therefore likely, but
any intensification trend could be halted soon after 24 hours when
the hurricane slows down and potentially upwells cooler waters.
The NHC intensity forecast is above the intensity consensus during
the first day or two and is closest to the statistical-dynamical
guidance.  Weakening is likely to occur after 48 hours due to
cooler waters and an increase in deep-layer shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 29.3N  39.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 30.9N  39.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 32.7N  40.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 34.0N  41.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 35.0N  42.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 36.0N  41.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 36.9N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 38.2N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 40.4N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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