[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

The center of Category Three Major Hurricane Lee, at
12/0300 UTC, is near 23.9N 64.8W. LEE is moving toward
the WNW, or 295 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 948 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Hurricane-
force winds are: within 70 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-
force winds are: within 160 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the
sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 360 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 270 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 300 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 345 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 39 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 21N to 25N between
63W and 67W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere from 20N to 28N between 60W and 70W.

The center of Hurricane Margot, at 12/0300 UTC, is near
28.0N 39.6W. Margot is moving toward the N, or 010 degrees,
10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts
to 85 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 15 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 15 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 15 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 110 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 70 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are
12 feet or greater is: within 210 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 165 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are 26 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from 24N to 34N between 30W and
46W.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

...INVEST AL98...

A tropical wave is along 22W, from 18N southward. A 1009 mb low
pressure center is along the tropical wave near 12N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 05N
to 17N from 28W eastward. The environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for gradual development of this system, especially
after is merges with an area of low pressure that is to its west
(AL97). It is likely for a tropical depression to form from the
combined system by this weekend. The movement is forecast to be
westward to west-northwestward 15 mph to 20 mph in the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

...INVEST AL97...

A tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 19N southward. A 1012 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 12N.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is within 300 nm of the center in the W semicircle. The
development of this system is unlikely before it merges with
another area of low pressure (AL98), that is to its east,
during the next couple of days.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N17W, to the INVEST AL98 low pressure center,
to the INVEST AL97 low pressure center, to 15N45W, to a
1012 mb low pressure center that is near 14N48W, to 12N51W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
07N to 20N between 40W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An inland stationary front passes through southern Mississippi,
to Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Any precipitation
is inland.

A surface trough curves from the SE Louisiana coastal waters,
to 23N92W, to the north central Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS model
for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows that a trough is in
the west central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 96W eastward.

The sea heights are: 2 feet in the coastal waters of NE Mexico,
and 1 foot elsewhere. The wind speeds range from light to gentle
everywhere.

A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters throughout the
forecast period supporting light to gentle winds. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected across the western Yucatan and
eastern Bay of Campeche each late afternoon and evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes through the
Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 17N into the Windward Passage
between 70W and 78W.

Mostly moderate to some fresh cyclonic winds are from 15N
southward from 80W eastward. Gentle and some moderate winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Sea heights that
are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet are reaching the Atlantic
Ocean side of the NE Caribbean Sea islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic. The sea heights are: from 3 feet
to 4 feet from 80W eastward; from 2 feet to 3 feet in the
coastal waters of Cuba; from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from the Windward Passage westward.
Most of this precipitation is in the broad surface
easterly wind flow.

Hurricane Lee is centered well N of Puerto Rico, near
23.9N 64.8W at 11 PM EDT, moving west-northwest at 6 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Lee will move slowly
NW and farther away from Caribbean waters through Thu.
Large NE swell across the adjacent Atlantic gradually will
become N then N-NW tonight through Thu, and move through
the Caribbean Passages and into the Caribbean waters
between the Leeward Islands and the Mona Passage.
Seas across these Caribbean Passages and waters will
diminish significantly Thu night through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Lee, Hurricane Margot, the INVEST AL97,
and the INVEST AL98.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet from the
Bahamas northward, and from 3 feet to 6 feet from the
Bahamas southward. The sea heights are ranging from
8 feet to 12 feet between the two hurricanes. The sea
heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 08N
southward between 45W and 50W. The sea heights are
ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to some strong northerly
winds are from 20N northward from 20W eastward.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 25N northward
between 50W and 60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE-
to-E winds are from 14N northward between 20W and
Hurricane Margot. An exception is for fresh SE winds
from 23N northward between 30W and Hurricane Margot.
Gentle winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is about 650 nm to the WNW
of the Canary Islands, near 32N30W.

Hurricane Lee is near 23.9N 64.8W at 11 PM EDT, moving
west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Minimum central pressure is 948 mb.
Lee is expected to maintain a slow NW motion and strengthen
modestly through Tue, then begin a gradual turn toward the
N on Wed. Lee is expected to reach near 24.4N 65.6W Tue
morning, near 25.0N 66.5W Tue evening, near 26.1N 67.2W
Wed morning, near 27.5N 67.6W Wed evening, near 29.4N 67.9W
Thu morning, and begin to exit the region near 31.6N 67.8W
Thu evening. Large E to SE swell dominating the waters east
of 78W will continue to propagate westward across the Atlc,
reaching the Florida coasts Tue afternoon. Large swell from
Lee will dominate regional waters tonight through Fri.

$$
mt
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