[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 112035
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

Satellite images this afternoon indicate that Margot continues to
strengthen with a more defined eye present while recent microwave
data shows improvement in the overall eye pattern. The latest TAFB
Dvorak intensity estimate of 65 kt, combined with the improved
satellite structure provides enough support to set the initial wind
speed at 65 kt this forecast cycle, making Margot the fifth
hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Margot is moving northward at about 10 kt. This motion is expected
to continue for the next couple of days before a slowing trend
occurs as Margot bends to the north-northwest due to a building
ridge to the east of the hurricane. Further slowing in the storm's
motion is expected by this weekend as a large mid-latitude ridge
blocks its path, effectively stalling the system. Beyond that time,
there continues to be uncertainty in the track with the various
model guidance showing a wide spread of possible solutions. The new
forecast lies near the previous NHC track, shifted a bit to the
west at long range.

The environment will continue to become more conducive for further
strengthening over the next 36 to 48 hours, with a gradual decrease
in vertical shear expected while Margot remains over relatively warm
waters of around 28 deg C. Beyond 72 hours, increasing shear and
drier air working into the system is likely to weaken Margot some.
The new forecast shows an increase in intensity through 48 hours
based on the expected favorable environment and higher statistical
guidance, leaning toward the Florida State Superensemble and NOAA
corrected-consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 27.0N  39.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 28.5N  39.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 30.7N  40.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 32.6N  40.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 34.1N  41.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 35.2N  41.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 36.0N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 37.1N  40.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 37.0N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake
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