[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 111440
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

Lee has been holding steady in strength this morning.  The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lee and found that the
minimum pressure was around 948 mb while a combination of the
measured flight-level and SFMR winds support holding the initial
intensity at 105 kt.  The aircraft data have also shown a clear
indication of concentric eyewalls, which will likely cause
fluctuations, both up and down, in Lee's intensity over the next day
or two.

The major hurricane is moving slowly toward the northwest at about
7 kt.  A continued slow motion between west-northwest and northwest
is expected during the next couple of days as Lee continues to be
steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Around the
middle of the week, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a
mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S.  This
pattern change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase
in forward speed.  The models have generally changed little this
cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast.  Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda,
late Thursday and Friday and be situated offshore of the
mid-Atlantic states and New England by the end of the forecast
period.

As mentioned above, fluctuations in strength are likely in the
short term due to eyewall replacement cycles, but there is an
opportunity for some strengthening during that time since the
system is expected to remain over very warm waters and in
relatively low wind shear conditions.  Beyond a couple of days,
however, progressively cooler waters and a notable increase in
shear should cause Lee to gradually weaken.  Although the weakening
is forecast later in the week, Lee is expected to significantly
increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the center
of the storm by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Interests there should monitor the latest
forecasts.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week and this weekend, however, wind and rainfall hazards will
likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users
should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 23.5N  63.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 23.9N  64.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 24.4N  65.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 24.9N  66.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 25.7N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 27.0N  67.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 28.8N  68.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 33.1N  67.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 38.9N  67.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net