[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 22.1N 61.7W at 10/2100 UTC or 250
nm NNE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are
estimated around 39 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 20N to 214N between 59W and 64W.
Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere from 19N to 26N between
55W and 65W. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. Lee is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible on Monday and Tuesday. Swells
generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles,
the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach
portions of the southeast U.S. East Coast and are forecast to
worsen and spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 23.9N 40.1W at 10/2100
UTC or 1020 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft
near the center. Numerous moderate convection is from 22N to 25N
between 39W and 41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
in form of rainbands is from 22N to 33N between 30W and 43W. Margot is
expected to continue a northward motion during the next several
days. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Margot is likely
to become a hurricane on Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 28W from 18N to 06N, with a
1012 mb low center (Invest AL97) near 13N28W. It is moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 15N between 25W and 35W. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for development during the next
day or so as the disturbance moves slowly westward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to merge with a
larger tropical wave to its east in a couple of days and no
further development is expected after that time. There is a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

A tropical wave came off of the W coast of Africa this afternoon.
Its axis is near 18W and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 5
to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 13W and 26W. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system during the latter part of
this week, and a tropical depression could form by next weekend as
it moves westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical
Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 2 days and a medium chance from 3 to 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W then reaches
southwestward 13N21W to 13N30W. It resumes farther west from
14N40W to 07N49W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N49W to
09N57W. For information on convection see the Tropical Waves
Section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A very weak stationary front curves westward from the Florida
Panhandle through the north-central Gulf to Corpus Christi,
Texas. Isolated showers prevails in the vicinity of this front.
Otherwise, a weak surface ridge is supporting light to gentle
winds E of 92W and moderate northerly winds W of 92W. Seas are
slight basin-wide.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
throughout the forecast period supporting light to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about large swell
generated by Major Hurricane Lee impacting the northeast
Caribbean islands.

Due to the passage of Major Hurricane Lee across the SW N Atlc
offshore waters NE of the region, there is a weak pressure
gradient over the basin, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE
to E winds basin-wide. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except near the Caribbean
Passages where large ENE swell generated from Lee is supporting
seas of 5 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Lee will move to 22.7N 62.7W Mon
morning, 23.3N 63.9W Mon afternoon, 23.8N 65.1W Tue morning, 24.2N
66.2W Tue afternoon, 24.7N 67.0W Wed morning, and 25.6N 67.6W Wed
afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves near
28.9N 68.0W Thu afternoon. In the Caribbean, moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue in the central and E Caribbean through
Mon. Large easterly swell from Lee is dominating the Atlantic
waters from the northern Leeward Islands to the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Large swell will gradually become NE and then N, and move
through the Caribbean Passages and into the Caribbean waters
between the Leeward Islands and the Mona Passage through Wed
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot. Please see the
TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ for convection in the
tropical Atlantic.

A surface trough extends northward from southeast Florida to
near 30N78W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along and up to 180 nm east of this feature.

Outside the influence of Lee, Margot, and AL97, a surface ridge
is supporting gentle to moderate NE and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
swell north of 24N between the west coast of Africa and 32.5W.
To the west, gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are found north of 20N between 74W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. North of the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to
fresh NE winds exist from 16.5N to 25N between the coast of
Africa and 30W. To the south from 06N to 14N between the Guinea-
Liberia coast and 30W, light to gentle monsoonal winds and 5 to
8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell are present. For the
tropical Atlantic, gentle with locally moderate trade winds and
seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swells dominate from 05N to 20N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in large southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin to the NW of Lee.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee will move to 22.7N 62.7W
Mon morning, 23.3N 63.9W Mon afternoon, 23.8N 65.1W Tue morning,
24.2N 66.2W Tue afternoon, 24.7N 67.0W Wed morning, and 25.6N
67.6W Wed afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it
moves near 28.9N 68.0W Thu afternoon. Large E to SE swell
dominating the waters east of 73W will continue to propagate
westward across the Atlc, reaching the the NW Bahamas and 78W Mon
evening, and the Florida coasts Tue afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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