[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is near 21.4N 60.5W at 5 AM EDT, or about 280 miles
NE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 8
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are estimated around 35 ft
near the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
is seen near within 75 nm N and 120 nm across the S semicircle.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is present elsewhere up
to 240 nm E and 120 nm W of the center. Lee is expected to
maintain a slow W-NW to NW motion through Tue night, and slowly
strengthen, while passing well north of the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Large E to SE swell
generated by Lee is propagating westward across the Atlantic, and
has begun to reach the waters of Hispaniola and the Turks and
Caicos Islands in recent hours. These large swells will spread
west and northwestward and reach the Bahamas and 76W by late
afternoon, the NW Bahamas and 78W by Mon morning, and then into
the coasts of Florida and the southeastern U.S. Tue morning.
These swells are likely to cause large and dangerous surf and
life-threatening rip current conditions. These dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to worsen along much of the Atlantic
coast of the U.S. throughout the week. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Margot is near 22.1N 39.6W at 5 AM EDT, or about
1100 miles W-NW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving northwest at 7
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Peak seas are near 18 ft near the
center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is near and
east of the center within 240 nm, while scattered moderate
convection is seen farther northeast and east from 19N to 27N
between 33W and 39W. Margot is expected to gradually turn toward
the N-NW to N with little change in forward speed through Mon
night. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few days,
and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane near 28.2N 40.8W Mon
night. Margot will move north of the area Tue night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 27W from 18N
to 08N, with a 1011 mb low center (Invest AL97) near 13N27W. It
is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 28W and 30W.
Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for additional
development on this low pressure system as it slowly moves
westward. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Nouakchott,
Mauritania then reaches southwestward through the aforementioned
AL97 to 13N30W. It resumes farther west from 14N40W to 10N44W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 10N44W to 08N52W. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is present south of the first monsoon trough
segment from 07N to 14N between the Senegal- Guinea coast and
21W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from
07N to 11N between 32W and 46W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters just north of Panama and northwestern Colombia to
the south of 12.5N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A very weak stationary front curves westward from the Florida
Panhandle through the north-central Gulf to just west of
Galveston, Texas. Isolated showers are seen near this front. A
surface trough near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Bay of Campeche. Modest surface ridging is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft over the eastern Gulf,
including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to locally moderate N to ENE
winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters throughout midweek next week, supporting light to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about large swell
generated by Major Hurricane Lee impacting the northeast
Caribbean islands.

An upper-level trough persists from the Yucatan Channel
southeastward to northern Colombia. Divergent southerly winds
north of its axis are coupling with modest convergent
northeasterly winds to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Gulf of Honduras. A weak trade-wind
regime continues across much of the basin, except for moderate to
locally fresh trades across the southeast and central portions,
where seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Mainly gentle E winds and 2 to 4
ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE
to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin,
including the Windward Passage. Large E to E-NE swell generated
from Lee is impacting the coastal waters of the northern Leeward
Islands, and bleeding through the Caribbean Passages and into the
extreme NE Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in
the central and eastern basin through Mon. Large easterly swell
from Lee is dominating the Atlantic waters of the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico this morning, and will gradually become NE
and then N today through Tue, allowing this swell to move through
the Caribbean Passages and into the northeastern Caribbean waters
this afternoon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning for
details on Major Hurricane Lee and on Tropical Storm Margot.

A surface trough extends northward from the northwest Bahamas to
near 30N78W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along and up to 180 nm east of this feature. An upper-level low
at the central Atlantic near 30N43W is generating widely scattered
moderate convection from 24N to 30N between 41W and 50W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the influence of Lee and Margot, a 1022 mb high near
33N35W is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell north of 20N between
30W and 65W. To the west, gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found north of 20N between 65W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle NNE trades
and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident north of 23N between the Africa
coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh WNW to NE winds exist from 14N to 22N between
the central Africa coast and 30W. To the south from 06N to 14N
between the Guinea-Liberia coast and 30W, light to gentle
monsoonal winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
are present. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle with locally
moderate trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swells
dominate from 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in large
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin to
the NW of Lee.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee will reach near near
22.0N 61.5W this afternoon, near 22.8N 62.8W Mon morning, near
23.3N 64.0W Mon afternoon, near 23.6N 65.2W Tue morning, near
23.9N 66.1W Tue afternoon, and near 24.5N 66.9W Wed morning before
turning toward the N. Large E to SE swell is dominating the
waters east of 72W this morning, and will continue to propagate
westward across the Atlc, reaching the central Bahamas and 75W
this evening, the NW Bahamas and 78W Mon evening, and the Florida
coasts and southeastern U.S. by Tue afternoon.

$$
Stripling
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