[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 100242
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Although Margot has not become significantly better organized since
earlier today, recent scatterometer data indicate that it has
strengthened slightly with maximum winds around 45 kt.  The system
continues to experience westerly shear that is at least partially
associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Lee.  In spite
of the shear, the center appears to be embedded within the main
area of deep convection.  However, the overall cloud pattern
remains elongated from west-southwest to east-northeast and
convective banding features are not well defined at this time.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues moving
northwestward, or at about 315/8 kt.  Over the next couple of days,
Margot should turn north-northwestward to northward while passing
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge.  Later in the
forecast period, the system's forward progress could be blocked by a
ridge building to its northwest.  Some of the track guidance models,
notably the GFS, show Margot turning eastward around the end of the
forecast period.  The official track forecast has been shifted
somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is not as
far east as the new GFS solution.  This is between the simple and
corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear
over Margot should remain moderate to strong for the next 48 hours
or so.  In 3 to 5 days the global models show an upper-level
anticyclone developing over the system, which would favor
intensification, although the mid-level humidities are forecast to
be only marginally conducive by that time.  Gradual strengthening is
predicted, at just a slightly faster pace than the previous NHC
forecast, and in good agreement with the latest intensity model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 21.6N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 22.5N  39.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 23.9N  40.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 25.4N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 27.0N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 28.8N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 30.7N  41.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 34.0N  41.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 36.0N  40.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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