[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lee is centered near 20.7N 59.1W at 09/2100 UTC or 270
nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are 40 kt in
the area of strongest winds. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 18N to 24N between 55W and 63W. On the
forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into
early next week. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual restrengthening is possible
during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Lee are
affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, and are spreading
westward to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East
Coast on Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 21.0N 38.7W at 09/2100
UTC or 890 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection from 20N to 23N between 34W
and 39W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhete from 18N to
27N between 32W and 39W. Margot is expected to continue to move
toward the northwest during the next day or so. A NNW to N motion
is forecast to begin by late Sunday. Gradual strengthening is
forecast over the next several days, and Margot is forecast to
become a hurricane next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis just W of the
Cape Verde Islands near 26W, moving westward around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 25W and
31W. This wave is expected to become entrained in the prevailing
southeasterly wind flow that is guiding Margot, which will weaken
it and transport it off to the NW through Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W then reaches
SW to south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N25W, before resuming
from 10N35W to 07N43W. The ITCZ begins at 07N43W and ends at
08N53W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is across the
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea offshore waters. Otherwise, scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 04N to 10N between 32W and
45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front curves SW from Panama City, Florida to
27N90W to Galveston, Texas. Isolated showers are likely in the
vicinityn of the front. A weak pressure gradient is across the
basin, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds N of 25N and
in the SE basin, and gentle to moderate NE winds S of 25N and W of
88W. Otherwise, slight seas to 3 ft are basin-wide.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
throughout the forecast period supporting light to moderate
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about large swell
generated by Major Hurricane Lee impacting the northeast
Caribbean islands.

An upper-level trough extends southward from western Cuba to
northwestern Colombia. Combining with modest convergent easterly
trades, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
across the Gulf of Honduras, and south of 10.5N, along the
monsoon trough. A weak trade-wind pattern is persisting across
east and west portions of the basin this morning, with fresh to
locally strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft occurring in
the south- central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
Strong ENE swell from Lee has begun to enter the passages of the
NE Caribbean recently and will build throughout the day as this
swell propagates westward across the eastern basin.

For the forecast, Hurricane Lee will move to 21.4N 60.3W Sun
morning, 22.1N 61.6W Sun afternoon, 22.9N 62.9W Mon morning, 23.3N
64.1W Mon afternoon, 23.6N 65.3W Tue morning, and 23.9N 66.3W Tue
afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves near
25.1N 67.8W Wed afternoon. In the Caribbean, moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue in the central and E Caribbean through
the weekend. Large easterly swell over the tropical Atlantic
waters and affecting the passages of the NE Caribbean, will
reach the the Mona Passage Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
on Major Hurricane Lee and on Tropical Storm Margot. For
convection information across the tropical Atlantic, please see
the TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections.

A modest but persistent surface trough extends northeastward from
the central Bahamas to west of Bermuda near 31N72W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near and up to 180
nm east side of this feature, including the rest of the
Bahamas. An upper-level low at the central Atlantic near 29N45W
is producing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between
43W and 48W

North of 20N, fresh to locally strong NE to ESE peripheral winds
of Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot are found northward
to 27N between 51W and 64W, and between 32W and 42W
respectively. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell dominates north of 24N between
25W and the Georgia-Florida coast. From 05N to 24N outside the
direct influence of Lee and Margot, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to SE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in mixed swells
exist between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary
Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades
and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found north of 18N between the Africa
coast and 25W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle monsoonal
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen south of 18N between the
central Africa coast and 23W. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh southerly winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in moderate to large
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Lee will move to 21.4N 60.3W Sun
morning, 22.1N 61.6W Sun afternoon, 22.9N 62.9W Mon morning, 23.3N
64.1W Mon afternoon, 23.6N 65.3W Tue morning, and 23.9N 66.3W Tue
afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves near
25.1N 67.8W Wed afternoon. In the Caribbean, moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue in the central and E Caribbean through
the weekend. Large easterly swell will reach the Mona Passage on
Sun, the Turks and Caicos Islands Sun evening and the southeastern
Bahamas Mon.

$$
Ramos
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