[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 081455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Margot has not changed much this morning. Deep convection has
persisted throughout the morning to the north and east of the
low-level center.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates from SAB/TAFB and UW-CIMMS range from 30 to 40kt for
this cycle. Using a blend of these estimates, the intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt as
it traverses the southern edge of a mid-level ridge.  Margot is
expected to continue this general motion for the next day or so,
after which it is expected to gradually turn northwestward this
weekend and then northward by early next week.  Global and regional
models are in generally good agreement for the next several days,
but toward the end of the forecast period the track guidance
diverges significantly as uncertainty in the steering flow
increases.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

The intensity forecast is complex. Sea surface temperatures are
sufficiently warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear
is expected to increase during the next day or so and remain strong
throughout much of the forecast period. Despite the vertical wind
shear, global and regional hurricane models are in generally good
agreement that Margot will gradually intensify throughout the
forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the
prior advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 18.0N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 18.9N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 20.1N  37.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 21.4N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 22.7N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 24.3N  41.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 25.9N  42.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 28.8N  42.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 31.8N  43.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Kelly
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