[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 080253
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
200 AM CVT Fri Sep 08 2023

The convective organization of Margot has changed little tonight.
The storm is producing some sheared convection to the north of its
center with modest signs of curvature. An earlier 37 GHz GMI
microwave image of Margot suggested the low-level center was a bit
south of previous estimates, and this is consistent with the now
partially exposed center that has emerged in recent proxy-visible
imagery. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from
earlier today, and the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The SSTs along Margot's track are plenty warm enough to support some
intensification over the next few days. On the other hand, there is
a good amount of dry air in the surrounding environment, and
southwesterly deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over Margot
during the next several days in association with an upper-level
trough over the central Atlantic. Interestingly, the increased shear
diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance occurs around the same time as
increasing upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This seems to
suggest that some of the intensification in the global models could
be driven by positive interaction with the upper trough. Since most
of the global and regional hurricane models show Margot becoming a
hurricane during the next few days, the NHC forecast follows suit
and shows slow strengthening throughout the period. This forecast
lies between the latest HCCA and IVCN multi-model aids.

Margot is moving west-northwestward at 295/14 kt around a ridge over
the eastern Atlantic. This general motion should continue for the
next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest at a slightly slower forward speed at days 3-5 as a
weakness develops in the subtropical ridge. The track model
consensus this cycle has trended slower and to the left of the
previous prediction. As a result, the updated NHC track forecast has
been adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 16.8N  29.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 17.5N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 18.6N  34.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 19.9N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 21.2N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 22.7N  40.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 24.5N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 28.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 31.0N  43.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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