[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 08 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category Four Hurricane Lee over the central tropical Atlantic is
centered near 16.9N 51.3W at 07/2100 UTC or 680 nm E of the
Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater extend outward up
180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, with peak seas of 28 ft.
Satellite imagery shows moderate to strong convection within 90
nm of the center in the NE quadrant...120 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant...60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 30 nm of a line that marks a band
that extends from 14N51W to 15N49W. A preceding 45 nm wide band
of scattered squalls and thunderstorms extends from near 25N49W
to 23N52W and to 19N55W. Lee is forecast to maintain its present
motion for the next several days while gradually slowing down its
forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of Lee will move
north of the northern Leeward Islands during the next several
days. Additional strengthening is expected tonight. Fluctuations
in intensity are expected after that, but Lee is forecast to
remain a powerful major hurricane well into next week. Swells
generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser
Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are
expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning
Sun. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Margot over the eastern Atlantic
is centered near 16.8N 28.3W at 07/2100 UTC or 250 nm WNW of the
Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection has increased showing signs banding around the center.
This convection extends up to 90 nm north and northeast of the
center. Margot is forecast to maintain its present motion for the
next few days, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over
the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Lee and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Margot
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W. Another segment of the monsoon trough begins at 11N27W
and continues to 06N31W and to 04N37W. Scattered moderate
conveciton is within 180 nm w of the trough between 29W-32W,
and within 60 nm southeast of the trough between 27W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough is analyzed over the central Gulf from 29N88W to
25N90W. Isolated shower and thunderstorms are noted east-
southeast of the trough from 23N to 26N between 84W-90W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the Bay of Campeche,
where a trough is analyzed from near 21N92W to 19N95W. Rather
tranquil conditions are elsewhere over the basin as a 1016 mb
high pressure center remains over the NW Gulf near 27N94W. The
weak gradient is resulting in generally light and variable winds
to exist along with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
throughout the forecast period supporting only light to moderate
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure pattern is allowing for gentle to
moderate trade winds along with seas in the range of 3-6 ft
over the basin.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Belize, Guatemala, and eastern Cuba. Similar activity is
over the interior of Hispaniola and over the northwest corner of
Puerto Rico.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are confined to the far
southwestern part of the sea, where the eastern segment of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches, roughly along 10N/11N
to just inland the northwest coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Lee is near 16.9N 51.3W at 5
PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 953 mb. Lee will move to 17.6N 53.0W Fri morning,
18.7N 55.2W Fri afternoon, 19.7N 57.2W Sat morning, 20.6N 59.0W
Sat afternoon, 21.3N 60.5W Sun morning, and 22.0N 61.8W Sun
afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves north
of Puerto Rico near 23.1N 64.3W Mon afternoon. In the Caribbean,
moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in the central and
eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin
to impact the Anegada Passage beginning Sat afternoon and the
Mona Passage beginning Sun morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Hurricane Lee and Tropical Depression Fourteen.

A trough extends from near 30N64W southwest to the southeastern
Bahamas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30-60 nm
of the trough axis. Farther east, the remnant low of former
tropical cyclone Katia is located near 24N34W, with a pressure of
1015 mb. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60
nm south of the low. Scattered showers are removed well to the
north of the low within 30 nm of a line from 25N35W to 26N34W.

A central Atlantic trough extends from near 29N43W to near
26N44W. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are within 120
nm east of the trough from 27N to 28N and north of 28N between
41W-46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line
from 25N45W to 25N42W.

Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Major Hurricane Lee is near 16.9N
51.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 953 mb. Lee will move to 17.6N 53.0W Fri
morning, 18.7N 55.2W Fri afternoon, 19.7N 57.2W Sat morning,
20.6N 59.0W Sat afternoon, 21.3N 60.5W Sun morning, and 22.0N
61.8W Sun afternoon. Lee will change little in intensity as it
moves north of Puerto Rico near 23.1N 64.3W Mon afternoon. Large
swell from Hurricane Lee will begin to impact the Anegada Passage
beginning Sat afternoon and the Mona Passage beginning Sun
morning.

$$
Aguirre
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