[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 072049
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
800 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery have shown increasingly
organized convection, with some convective bursts and curved banding
features around the low-level center. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have increased to T2.5/35 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Margot is currently moving west-northwestward, and
this motion is forecast to continue over the next couple days. A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is indicated by
the end of the forecast period as a weakness develops in the
subtropical ridge over east-central Atlantic. The track guidance is
in general agreement, and the NHC track forecast once again lies
between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Sea surface temperatures remain in the vicinity of 28C, but Margot
could encounter moderate wind shear and drier mid-level relative
humidities later in the forecast period. In general, these
conditions are not expected to be too hostile, and gradual
strengthening is indicated. The NHC wind speed forecast brings
Margot to hurricane strength in two to three days. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 16.8N  28.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.5N  30.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.5N  33.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.8N  36.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 21.1N  38.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 22.6N  39.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 24.4N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 28.0N  42.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 31.5N  43.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano
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