[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Katia became post-tropical cyclone at 2100
UTC near 28.0N 34.4W, or about 910 nm NW of the Cabo Verde
Islands moving NW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are to its north from 28N
to 30N between 31W-36W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are from
27N to 31N between 35W-36W along with seas of 10-12 ft. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the last Katia
NHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Invest AL95: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along
35W. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the tropical wave near
12N. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection within 180 nm either side of the
wave and low from 12N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N12N. This activity has
changed little in organization through the day. Strong to near
gale- force winds and seas of 8 ft are from 12N to 13N between
35W-37W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form over the next day or so while the low
moves toward the west-northwest across the central tropical
Atlantic. Additional strengthening, possibly to a hurricane is
likely later this week while the system moves over western
portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands. Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong tropical wave that is over western Africa is forecast
to move off the African coast in a couple of days. The
environmental conditions should support some slow development,
and is is possible that a tropical depression may form in the
the far eastern tropical Atlantic around the latter part of the
week or the weekend while the wave moves to the west-northwest.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along
76W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the wave
from 10N to 13N.

The Caribbean Sea tropical wave that previously had its axis
along 86W/87W and south of 19N has moved inland Central America.
Please refer to the eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather
Discussion for the latest details on this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Senegal near 14N17W through the INVEST AL95 low pressure
centerand 10N39W. The ITCZ continues from 10N39W to 09N44W to
07N53W. Numerous strong convection is between 14W-18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from the western
tip of Cuba curving northwestward to 25N87W and to just south
New Orleans, Louisiana. ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds are east of the dissipating front, while
moderate or lighter southeast winds are west of the front.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving westward are
over the central Gulf waters from 22N to 25N between 90-92W.
Isolated showers are elsewhere west of the dissipating front to
near 94W.

Elsewhere, generally weak high pressure is present. A 1016 mb
high pressure center is in interior Mexico near 19N97W and
a 1014 mb high pressure center is near 21N101W.

Seas throughout are in the range of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United
States will support mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds across most of the basin through tonight, and gentle to
moderate thereafter through mid- week. Afterward, a weak pressure
gradient will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas
the remainder of the forecast period, with the exception of
gentle to moderate winds just west of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon is along 09N
to Colombia near 09N75W. The gradient across the basin supports
moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern part and
moderate and lighter trade winds elsewhere. Altimeter data
indicates seas in the range of 4-6 feet over the central
section of the sea and lower seas of 3-4 ft east of 70W, and
1-3 ft west of 70W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are confined from 11N to 14N
between 77W and the coast of Nicaragua. Similar activity is
over Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas will continue in the central and eastern Caribbean the
entire forecast period, except for developing fresh to strong
winds in the south-central waters Tue night into Wed. Gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located several hundred nm
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to become a
tropical depression or tropical storm within a day or two, and
should cross 55W by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Katia and Invest AL95.

A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N53W to
23N60W and to the southeast part of Cuba. A large and nearly
stationary upper-level cyclonic circulation center is identified
on water vapor imagery to be near 29N43W. An area of scattered
moderate convection is noted from 24N to 28N between 44W-55W.
Seas are 8 feet and higher north of the Greater Antilles and
west of 60W westward, with the exception of lower seas of 3-5 ft
between the Bahamas and Florida. Higher seas of 7-11 ft are
north of 19N between 50W-60W. Seas are from 3-6 ft over
the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh and west-northwest winds
are north of 29N between the dissipating stationary front and
65W, while moderate to fresh northeast winds are from 15N to 25N
and east of about 26W. Moderate or lighter trade winds are
over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, Seas of 7 to 9 ft in N to NE swell are occurring
over much of the area east of 75W and north of 20N today. The
swell will gradually subside through Tue. Looking ahead, an area
of low pressure located several hundred nm west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to become a tropical
depression or tropical storm within a day or two, and should
cross 55W by Fri.

$$
Aguirre
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